Governments and Economic Performance

Voters overestimate the effect that current governments have on their economies’ concurrent economic performance.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The lags in terms of the effects of policy are uncertain and probably highly variable. It seems unlikely that voters understand this well.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
And governments react to this by over-implementing policies that generate noticeable short-term benefits and (possibly) long-run costs.
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
This is a no-brainer, backed by overwhelming evidence.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Sometimes, yes; but as a general proposition about foolishness of voters and irrelevance of governments, no.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Often, in public debate, external forces and uncontrolled markets are blamed for poor economic performance, not true own political omissions
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
The evidence on this is perhaps not very strong but it is a plausible hypothesis.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
There is evidence for link between voting choice & current/past econ performance, but link is weaker than conventional wisdom may suggest.
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Emergency intervention can have immediate effects. But policy mostly has slow effects, especially on aggregate productivity
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Some voters probably do. But even rational voters learn about a government's skill by observing economic performance under its policies.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Modern economies are driven by private initiative which depends partially on government policy. Governments can do more damage than good
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Voters do not in general know much about economics; in particular the economic linkages across economies and lagged effects of policies.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
"Learning the Wealth of Nations"...
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
In general, governments take small steps. But at crisis time, management capability is crucial. And in good time, silly governments...
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History