Global Warming

It’s very difficult to make these long term predictions. However, I am more optmistic now than I used to be that this climate target may be met, given the great technological progress being made, particularly in solar cells.

I do not know enough even to have a guess. Technological progress is surprisingly fast. But political support and funding is, as would be expected, not sufficient. Which of these two forces will dominate, I just do not know.

+2.3°C according to NDC scenario of the NGFS Phase V, see p. 11 of link. Implementation is however highly uncertain.
-see background information here

We are not on the right track but forthcoming catastrophies will force the global community to act!

It is very hard to predict the technological progress in this area, e.g. regarding carbon dioxide removal.

I’m optimistic on technology, and especially that a cascading adoption of significantly less carbon-intensive processes within the next few decades is plausible. Much uncertainty though, especially on the political dimension.

The mood in many countries shifts away from giving climate concern high priority in policy agendas. On the other hand, climate sensitive investment strategies are increasingly popular among private agents. Taken together, necessary action happens, although speed is limited.

Obviously estimate w/huge std error that requires reliance on climate science. My understanding (see link) is that much depends on whether ctries live up to pledges & NDCs (=2.1 C) or continue w/current policies & actions (=2.7 C). Also hope that Amara's Law is at play for tech
-see background information here

This is quite uncertain, but we are already almost 1.5 degrees above those levels. Given how long carbon persists in the atmosphere, and continued population growth in countries that cannot afford clean energy, it will take time for temperature to change its course.

I'm uncertain as my best guess is just about 2.5 degrees, and it'll likely be close one side or the other.

From IPCC latest report:"The best estimates [and very likely ranges] for the different scenarios are: 1.4 [1.0 to 1.8 ]°C (SSP1-1.9); 1.8 [1.3 to 2.4]°C (SSP1-2.6); 2.7 [2.1 to 3.5]°C (SSP2-4.5); 3.6 [2.8 to 4.6]°C (SSP3-7.0); and 4.4 [3.3 to 5.7 ]°C (SSP5-8.5)." Very uncertain.
-see background information here

I believe the only hope for reducing/mitigating climate change is technological progress; societies seem unwilling to make drastic life style changes to reduce climate change. So the pace of warming depends on how quickly new technologies come online and how they are deployed.

Governments' commitment to fight climate change has waned in the past few years; unless they reverse course and efforts (and technologies) improve dramatically, we may drift away from the benign scenarios
-see background information here

I think it will go higher due to total lack of climate action

predicting this far out is an exercise in futility; the data behind the CO2 hypothesis are all ill-fitting time series e-metrics and frankly insane models that no serious economist should put their faith in.

This is not at all my area of expertise but I understand the Paris agreement's goal of limiting warming to 2c is not likely to be achieved so I'm not sure why we would be confident that warming would be limited to 2.5c.