Question A:
Firms’ incentives to reduce costs by sourcing inputs and products abroad have caused many European industries to become more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
21%
2%
0%
0%
19%
46%
13%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
22%
59%
18%
Question B:
Private firms have inadequate incentives to make investments to reduce the risk that disruptions in the supply of imports will cause shortages and raise domestic prices.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
21%
4%
0%
17%
29%
27%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
22%
39%
35%
3%
Question C:
Prioritisation of efficiency over resilience in global supply chains makes current disruptions likely to continue beyond 2022.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
21%
4%
0%
13%
35%
25%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
21%
41%
33%
5%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Difficult to know the extent to which current disruptions could have been anticipated and what difference that would have made.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There has also been a lot of domestic fragmentation. Domestic chains (like toilet paper or meat in the US) have also been disrupted by COVID
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 Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably, but from British experience supply chain crisis can also be domestic, so that international supply helps to resolve these.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sourcing may make the supply chain more vulnerable, but it is not clear whether that is abroad makes any difference.
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But the exposure is not a new or recent phenomenon -- what is recent is that the risk materialized .
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question is about the counterfactual. Not clear whether home-sourcing could lead a different class of bottlenecks: simultaneity.
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is often stated, but I have not seen hard evidence actually backing it.
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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supply chain disruptions can also occur within countries, e.g. strikes, political unrest, etc. it's a relative assessment of vulnerabilities
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firms always have an incentive to reduce costs. Globalisation increased dependence on imported inputs and this has increased vulnerability.
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I am not exactly sure what "inadequate incentives" refers to. Is this about externalities or other market failures or what?
|
||||
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You can make the case for certain external effects, but they are not always theoretically compelling, and there is little evidence for them.
|
||||
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Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No strong externalities. One problem is that many have inconsistent plan Bs: relying on the same supplier, if something happens.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Inventory control is all about this - hold more inventory at a cost, but buffer supply shock. Firms can manage this.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some firms may have miscalculated the incentives, but most do internalize much of the costs of disruption.
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||||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Private firms' incentives depend on expected price sensitivities. As long as prices reflect possible future shortages, firms will react.
|
||||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Resilience is bit like insurance. Underprovision in priv. mkts due to info&public goods prob. Mitigating disruptions requires collaboration.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Clear externality.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What is the missing market? The firm would benefit greatly from being the only supplier when other firms cannot.
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firms have incentives to arrange production to exploit price increases caused by disruptions. Should increase demand for domestic suppliers
|
||||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm not sure there is clear evidence for a market failure on this issue.
|
||||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I can't think of an externality, but how convincing is it?
|
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Resilience should probably be part of efficiency. Either way problems are likely to persist, particularly if Russia invades Ukraine.
|
||||
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Things ran quite smoothly up to 2020. COVID has been the mother of all supply chain shocks. If the pandemic subsides,so will the disruptions
|
||||
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Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Who says they are prioritizing efficiency over resilience?
|
||||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The Lean dilemma: just-in-time improves efficiency but reduces resiliency. There is a trade-off, and firms will try to maximize efficiency.
|
||||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Especially geopolitical tensions remain heightened.
|
||||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I don't see the alleged prioritization of efficiency over resilience. It is a matter expectations, and people learn from past experiences.
|
||||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The existence of a tradeoff between efficiency and resilience is not clear to me.
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Resilience is part of efficiency
|
||||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I'm sure some firms that were badly affected by shortages will re-examine their approach but I don't expect big systemic changes.
|
||||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Shouldn't we think of EXPECTED efficiency?
|
||||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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