Question A:
Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
22%
9%
0%
7%
13%
24%
26%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
9%
12%
29%
49%
Question B:
The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
22%
4%
0%
4%
13%
37%
20%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
5%
15%
46%
33%
Question C:
If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
22%
7%
0%
4%
9%
35%
24%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
4%
9%
47%
40%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends what the money is spent on. Germany is probably underinvesting in infrastructure and education.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The demography justifies a smaller surplus. Returns from foreign investments are not great.
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Running a smaller primary surplus, so increasing demand and output would likely lead to a real appreciation and an increase in real income.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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provided the public investments are real productivity boosters!
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"De gustibus non est disputandum"
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not wish to comment on German policies.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the EU is one economy, some countries will always run a surplus/deficit; there is no point in balancing the current account by country.
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on sources of surplus for which no consensus. Yet agree GER should spend more on public R&D, incentives for private inv. &tax reform
-see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Surpluses defer consumption; doing this indefinitely makes no sense. That said, German opposition to inflation is understandably deep-rooted
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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on a very short term basis I might have agreed but Germany is facing an ageing population and they are saving for the future. Good for them!
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Investing now to tackle e.g climate change is prudent strategy instead of getting low returns on external assets. Low gvt borrowing rates.
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More spending on infrastructure would appear particularly desirable
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Germany is famously poor in investing its surpluses abroad
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Private saving is a matter of choice. Public saving is a matter of collective preferences. Germans sometimes are hard to understand.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Again it depends on what the money is being spent on with the expanded fiscal policy relative to what is the optimal public expenditure.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on which country expands.
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I believe that there is still a negative output gap in the euro zone, and m policy cannot help much.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I worry about crowding out private investment - if this spending went on productive spending (schools etc) great, but I fear most will not.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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under same condition!
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lack of public expense in tangible (research) and intangible (infrastructures) in order to foster innovation and growth limits Europe prospe
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Noy full employment yet in many countries. Low inflationary pressures. Limited room for more monetary loosening.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not wish to comment on Eurozone policies.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are pros and cons, as some countries have hard-to sustain government debt levels, others not. Thus, a case by case analysis is needed.
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, depends on what money is spend on. Structural reform. Neg rates do not seem to work. In US, subsidies to banks seem to work better
-see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The current monetary-fiscal-policy disconnect is unsustainable. Provided it is prudent and targeted, expansionary fiscal policy makes sense
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are costs to having negative interest rates.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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fiscal policy directed to productivity-enhancing public investment would definitely benefit it more than monetary policy
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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fiscal policy now would be effective to boost economy and invest for future. Would help constrained monetary policy.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am not convinced that more expansionary policy in the Southern states is desirable; debt is already high and spending is often wasted
|
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would be nice to have countercyclical fiscal policies at work, if they are done well. A big if, especially in the upswing.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not clear in the long run that policy interventions of this kind are beneficial. Again depends on how productively spending is.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
fiscal expansion yes. Coordinated: better, but not of the essence.
|
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
At the zero-lower-bound fiscal-monetary coordination is essential to avoid sub-optimal monetary policies.
-see background information here |
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The lack of an organized coordinated response to a recession is costly and inefficient
|
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Need for a coordinated response (to avoid free riding), and given no room for robust monetary policy response.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I do not wish to comment on Eurozone policies.
|
||||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Fiscal policies in the Eurozone are by and large regional/national decisions, so coordination may be either not justified, or not needed.
|
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
"essential" begs a lot of questions. Desirable definitely, though without new institutional structures, not clear how that can be effected
|
||||
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
With monetary policy largely maxed out and macropru policy largely in national hands, there aren't many other options left.
|
||||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Keynes explained it in 1936, no need to repeat
|
||||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Given initial debt levels, not all countries will be able to afford a fiscal expansion.
|
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
But don't hold your breath!
|
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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