Question A:
Reducing the minimum retirement age in France from 62 back to age 60, permanently, would reduce long-term French economic growth and substantially raise French debt relative to GDP over time.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
France’s overall employment is higher today because of the 35 hour work week than it would be without a limit on weekly hours.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lifespans are getting substantially longer. Working lives must get somewhat longer too to cover the cost of decades-long retirements.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Retirement comes with a substantial state pension.
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People are living longer healthier lives, which means that retirement ages should be going up not down.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It will lower output and raise debt, but I don't think it will lower growth.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would lower tax revenues, increase retirement benefits, and lower output.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It seems very likely it would increase debt relative to GDP, I don't know about GDP growth.
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The word "substantially" threw me off a bit and perhaps a better answer would be "uncertain."
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Solow explained why a level effect does not affect growth. We don't really know much about debt determination in the longer run.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Generational accts show that lowering the retirement age would increase future liabilities and thus future tax rates, reducing productivity
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reducing labor supply surely reduces production and tax revenues.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lower labor supply reduces growth. Increasing life expectancy makes this expensive, if anything retirement age should be hiked further.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The long term *level* of GDP and employment would go down in France as a result, I think.
-see background information here |
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 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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France is not in terrible budgetary shape, but this won't help. Whether they finance spending through debt or taxes is a second-order issue
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure about "substantial" but otherwise clear.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bad GDP effects if across the board reduction from 62 to 60, but if only for a small group which started work at 16, as proposed by Holland
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cutting real pension levels or providing serious incentives to delay retirement beyond 60 could mitigate the adverse impact.
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would presumbly raise debt/GDP, as pension costs would be higher and tax revenues lower. The effect on LR growth is not at all clear.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raising employer costs does not create more employment.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are many ways for employers and employees to evade these types of regulations, so the net effect is uncertain.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are competing effects on the supply and demand for jobs. Lacking knowledge of the availanble research I can't estimate the net effect.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on so many things, it is impossible to predict.
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Labor demand determines total hours, so as long as the legal constraint binds, tightening it raises employment.Does not make it a good idea.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to evaluate this policy empirically because of gen eqm effects. It's based on wrong-headed thinking, though: a fixed employment pie.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sold on these grounds, but evidence suggested it backfired.
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Research suggests that this cost-increasing restriction has not cost France much employment, but not that it is helpful to employment.
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hours and output effects are clear, but employment effect ambiguous.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm not sure why this policy has ceased to be a joke.
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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