US

Fracking

New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Natural gas prices will fall, but this may affect world price as much as U.S. price. Not sure whether U.S. production affects U.S. price.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Energy costs are set largely in the world market. Moreover, environmental degradation could make areas less competitive in the long run.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Isn't this what the Dutch disease is about?
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
The question did not ask whether the associated envirnomental costs are large. I do not know the answer to that question.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Substantially lowering energy costs would make U.S. firms more competitive, but at a potentially veyr high environmental price.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
But I don't know how much it would stimulate economic growth and, thus, I could not claim that it would be "substantial."
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
lower prices help w exports of manufacturing but i bet "significantly" is too strong. better ? is should we export nat gas & answer is yes
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
More important, it raises real income and thus consumption. We don't really care about exports, only consumer well-being.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
A silly gotcha q! Fracking may lower gas price but it's traded on world mkt so it won't make any country's exports more cost competitive.Duh
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
3 uncertain steps. Natural gas prices might fall, but cost savings might be minimal, & share of energy costs may be too small to matter.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
My colleague Frank Wolak says the cost of oil is about $16/MMBTU vs. about $2.50/MMBTU for natural gas.
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Qualifications that clearly correct but unclear about how large.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
In a global market, natural gas prices would fall worldwide helping foreign economies too. US-specific effects depend on market barriers.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Energy costs are too small a share of total mfg costs to have a big impact. Labor costs are the lion's share of the total.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
US energy prices are driven by world supply and demand, so the effect on US growth is realized only if global prices are moderated.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
In the answer I am ignoring any potential environemtal impact