Question A:
The cancellation of the majority of programs run by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) will have no measurable effects on GDP growth in the recipient countries over the next five years.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
11%
0%
9%
24%
46%
11%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
14%
35%
41%
10%
0%
Question B:
The cancellation of the majority of USAID programs will have substantially negative effects on the most vulnerable people in the recipient countries over the next five years.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
11%
0%
0%
0%
2%
50%
37%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
1%
47%
52%
Question C:
Development assistance motivated by the potential benefits for the donors in terms of prosperity and security is measurably more effective in promoting GDP growth in recipient countries than aid based on humanitarian or other moral principles.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
11%
11%
2%
28%
48%
0%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
1%
40%
59%
0%
0%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence for a long run negative effect of aid on growth is weak, but the abrupt elimination of aid will have a small negative effect in the short term.
-see background information here |
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I suspect that the effect will be negative. I'm uncertain if it will be large enough to be measurable. In any case, we won't have a research design that can actually measure it. There are many "common shocks" hitting many countries at this moment in time.
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It might make receiver countries less stable, which ultimately hurts GDP growth as well.
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amounts are small but question is misguided bc GDP misses health and other determinants of welfare. Plus, it is possible that there are GDP effects if aid prevents consumption disasters, civil war etc....
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Many USAID programs, such as PEPFAR, do not aim to directly improve economic growth.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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USAID was tiny compared to the economies involved, and so the effects of its cancellation may be difficult to detect.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Certainly for countries such as South Sudan, Somalia or DRC where USAID financing represented multiple percentage points of GNI.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Didn't know any of the numbers here, so I looked up one country off the top of my head, Liberia. Received about $150m in U.S. aid in 2023. GDP that year was $4.24B, so aid was 3.5%. Loosing that seems enough to measurably affect growth.
-see background information here |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is very difficult to estimate the casual effect of USAID on country level growth. But the immediate macro effects will be negative, and the long term consequences likely to be significant.
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Humanitarian aid, health related aid matters and disaster relief matter. I uncertain, though, about whether USAID is large enough to have a "substantial" effect.
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We see this happening in Myanmar already. And this is just one tiny manifestation of the harm that the U.S. (and, specifically, the world's richest man) has chosen to inflict on the world's most vulnerable populations.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Global health aid!
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The sudden cancellation of programs like PEPFAR will lead to a decline in health care. Even if host countries replace the programs, that will take time particularly without the help of the USAID people who have the expertise the host needs.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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USAID was targeted at the most vulnerable, who have little other recourse.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Notably ending programs like PEPFAR
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See analysis for prior question.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is strong evidence that many specific USAID programs in health, education, and social protection are highly effective, and that their withdrawal will have have string negative effects on the well-being of the poor. .
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't even understand the question. What is the tension between prosperity and security vs. humanitarian and other moral principles?
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Humanitarian is often about prosperity and security. Plus GDP is not welfare (see PEPFAR).
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Foreign aid is often not given to improve economic growth. For example, military aid to Egypt is justified by other objectives.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The most successful programs such as for global health have both rationales
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is difficult to say what the effect of aid, motivated by security benefits to donors, will have on recipients.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too much elasticity of meaning in those words to say anything definitive.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A contender for most poorly worded question in recent history
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't know of any convincing evidence of this.
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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