Question A:

Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
I have a semantic issue with "rules". These could be, as I have argued, the use of a debt sustainability analysis, or institutional arrangements, not necessarily a set of hard numbers
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
You can have a sound fiscal system without rules - for example many countries did post-war
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Allows to anchor expectations, especially since fiscal adjustment takes time.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Much depends of the nature of these rules. Numerical rules are stupid
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
It is essential that the rules leave room for investment. The difficult question is of course how to implement this.
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
it depends on the details of the rule. Certain rules may be destabilizing (e.g. balanced budget)
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Simple rules are too inflexible and therefore not credible, Complex rules have little traction.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Fiscal rules are not necessarily essential - namely if there is credible mechanism to restructure sovereign debt. If that were the case, market discipline alone would help to keep debt at a sustainable level.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The path of debt levels and/or nominal expenditure rules more appropriate than deficit rules
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Without it the temptation of spending ministers to spend too much is just to great. Especially in coalition systems one needs strong rules to keep good discipline.
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
The world is complex and simple rules rarely capture this complexity well enough to play an important role in defining good policy. Good fiscal policy is counter-cyclical, but even measuring the cycle requires a lot of judgement rather than rules.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Very few are the governments that feel bound by the budget constraint
-see background information here
-see background information here

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
That is a hard causal question to answer - typically national spending is driven by domestic policies and politics rather than EU fiscal rules.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
SGP has been instrumental in smaller economies, but also had some impact in larger ones, cf evidence of a magnet effect.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
We don't have a counterfactual
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
May have had some effect in some countries as the price of euro entry; but manipulation also occurred.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I haven't seen the counterfactuals, but I could imagine that SGP has had some impact on debt levels.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
depends on the country
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
However, in times of crises, starting with Germany, countries have been quite happy to not abide by the rules.
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
A difficult question. The rules were blatantly disregarded by countries like France and Germany in the euro's early years. And much of the austerity required during the crisis was required to regain market access rather than to satisfy rules.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Counterfactuals can't be proven! In comparison with other advanced countries, generally the European countries have not done better-
-see background information here

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Plenty of procyclical policy as a result of bad rules.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
This is I think impossible to claim. Firstly, rules constrain countercyclical policy so the reverse is likely true. Secondly, it's a causal statement which is almost imopssile to show in macro. Finally, "measurable" changes in volatility are hard because of low signal:noise ratio
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
SGP has not been binding in good times. Not binding in big crises due to escape clause, but still fiscal adjustment was largely pro cyclical. Not only the fault of SGP though.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
We don't have a counterfactual. They did not prevent the debt crises and consequent recession. And they may have deepened the Great Recession
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The faulty design and implementation of the common budget rules is to blame.
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Austerity post 2008 caused volatility
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
I'm not sure the fiscal rules have contributed greatly to economic stability.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Another counterfactual that is asserted, not proven.