US

Fiscal Policy and Savings

Sustained tax and spending policies that boost consumption in ways that reduce the saving rate are likely to lower long-run living standards.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
LONG run and sustained...
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
It depends what the spending is for.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Boosting the short run implies a tradeoff, and a distortion in market incentives for long run efficient savings.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
lower long run savings is likely to lower long run living standards regardless of source. likely, not certain.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
I would give a different answer depending on whether we were talking about Brazil or China.
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Important question with an answer that depends on too many factors for a flippant response on my part.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
if we are talking long-run
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Only an unlikely exotic economy could over come the basic principle that more now means less later.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Artificial depression of saving, which is the (unintentional) effect of many govt policies, reduces welfare unless itoffsets some distortion
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Not everywhere and always, but probably here and now for most such policies.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Poorly worded and loaded question.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Unclear what is meant by a "spending policy that boosts consumption."
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History