If the fiscal changes that are planned under current US law take place next year — including Bush era tax cuts expiring, Medicare payment rates to doctors being cut, the AMT applying to many more taxpayers, and automatic cuts in defense and non-defense discretionary spending kicking in — then US real GDP growth in 2013 will be lower than it would be under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario, in which the above changes do not occur.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
3%
0%
3%
8%
43%
30%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
1%
3%
48%
48%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Nevertheless, I'd rather go over the 'fiscal cliff' than renew our irresponsible and unsustainable spend-don't-tax policies.
|
||||
![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is the debate. On net, I am still on the Keynesian side.
|
||||
![]() Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
These measures could lower growth in 2013; the alternative has projected deficits of 5.3% (vs 1.4%) for many years; that's not good either!
|
||||
![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Lower spending and higher taxes imply slower growth. But alternative scenario would lead to higher deficit.
|
||||
![]() Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
you've got to be kidding me. of course it would be lower.
|
||||
![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
All macro models agree that lower product demand and higher taxes reduce current output and employment.
|
||||
![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Some of the policies listed are anti-growth, some pro-growth, so it's hard to evaluate them succinctly as a package.
|
||||
![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Short run contraction for sure. But long run costs of NOT acting are growing; entitlement reform and some revenue increases are needed.
|
||||
![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Presuming it does not have a big effect on either (1) expected fiscal policy in future years, or (2) unconventional monetary policy.
-see background information here |
||||
![]() Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Most of the action is on the tax side as CBO documents. See my WSJ op-ed on May 18, 2012 about this.
-see background information here |
||||
![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
If all these changes do kick in at the end of 2012, it is hard to imagine they would be left in place for all of 2013. So then what?
|
||||
![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
No brainer.
|
||||
![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
The worst aspect is the perduring uncertainty on what will happen
|