Question A:
The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Current EU and national fiscal policy plans are likely to leave European output below potential a year from now.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think there's a lot of uncertainty about the answer to this question. There could be prolonged inflation, but also it could be temporary.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is a growing chance of a serious inflationary spiral. That it has not happened in a long time does not mean it may not happen now.
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 Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I object to ``serious''. I believe it is more likely to lead to a stronger reaction of the Fed than currently assumed, and higher rates.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The risk may be real if the full fiscal plan is enacted and the Fed did not adjust its policy in response. This is unlikely in my opinion
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Policy seems a bit too lax but Fed has tools can & likely will be used to prevent sustained inflation escaping if that risk materializes.
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The economy is near full capacity which is the time when a slow inflationary process may accelerate unless Fed policy does not counteract.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on how long these policies are pursued.
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Current inflation is a combination of base effects and very specific supply constraints which will vanish. Labour market not stressed.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I put the odds of inflation above 4% on average 5y5y at 10-15%. That is too high.
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiscal policy stimulus is set to end soon. Monetary policy has lots of room to tighten to reduce excess demand.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is not a certainty, but high probabiilty. But this not a "risk", many of us would welcome escaping the very low inflation situation.
-see background information here |
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Difficult to say again. There is likely to be significant heterogeneity across countries.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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probably, based on existing plans. But a number of countries are likely to do more if it looks like it is needed.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would be more worried that the spending plans are not targeted enough towards increasing growth in the medium-term future.
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both monetary policy and fiscal policy seem accomodative enough to attain potential.
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Private investments are increasing these days, with a good chance of reducing the so-called output gap to a low value, a year from now.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It very much depends on which country in Europe you think of.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Legacy of foolish fiscal austerity
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Still hard to gauge what is potential post pandemic (e.g., in tourism, which is a big share of Europe GDP)
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Substantially smaller fiscal impetus than in the US and this will have implications for the scale of the recovery.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Monetary policy is about useless and post-Covid fiscal policies are not up to the challenge.
-see background information here |
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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