US

Fed Strategy

The Fed’s revised strategy to focus on employment shortfalls and a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target will make little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes over the next decade.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Difficult to know, but it could be a major change, making monetary policy more responsive to the labor market, not just the stock market
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
We had de-face average inflation targeting due to inflation inertia. However, the new strategy changes communication with potential impact.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Allowing inflation overshoots, to achieve higher average inflation, will have an impact if and when inflation actually rises to 2%.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
To do list: 1) Survive economic crisis 20) Debate how we will react years from now when the economy overheats
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Allowing unemployment to glide downward during longer expansions has been Fed policy for decades. The Fed has tried to inflate but failed.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
This is an awfully vague question. I cannot answer it well.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The Fed's analytical tools are far too crude to implement such fine tuning.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Probably minimal effect, but could have negative effect that Fed will become more political.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Their ability to forecast and control inflation is a lot more tenuous than their rhetoric suggests.
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
It hasn't kept 10 year inflation forecasts from edging down.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
It is a sensible revision at the lower bound. A decade is a long time, and this could help the recovery once underway.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
The Fed is still vague on implementation - recently hinting that it would tolerate inflation beyond its target - on which much depends.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It depends on the details of how the strategy is implemented.
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The change will justify later liftoff and (I hope) could change inflation expectations so inflation rises and provides more buffer
-see background information here
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History