The Fed’s revised strategy to focus on employment shortfalls and a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target will make little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes over the next decade.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
14%
0%
21%
37%
23%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
31%
37%
33%
0%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Difficult to know, but it could be a major change, making monetary policy more responsive to the labor market, not just the stock market
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We had de-face average inflation targeting due to inflation inertia. However, the new strategy changes communication with potential impact.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Allowing inflation overshoots, to achieve higher average inflation, will have an impact if and when inflation actually rises to 2%.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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To do list:
1) Survive economic crisis
20) Debate how we will react years from now when the economy overheats
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Allowing unemployment to glide downward during longer expansions has been Fed policy for decades. The Fed has tried to inflate but failed.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is an awfully vague question. I cannot answer it well.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Fed's analytical tools are far too crude to implement such fine tuning.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably minimal effect, but could have negative effect that Fed will become more political.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Their ability to forecast and control inflation is a lot more tenuous than their rhetoric suggests.
-see background information here |
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It hasn't kept 10 year inflation forecasts from edging down.
-see background information here |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is a sensible revision at the lower bound. A decade is a long time, and this could help the recovery once underway.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Fed is still vague on implementation - recently hinting that it would tolerate inflation beyond its target - on which much depends.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on the details of how the strategy is implemented.
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The change will justify later liftoff and (I hope) could change inflation expectations so inflation rises and provides more buffer
-see background information here |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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