The Fed’s revised strategy to focus on employment shortfalls and a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target will make little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes over the next decade.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Difficult to know, but it could be a major change, making monetary policy more responsive to the labor market, not just the stock market
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
We had de-face average inflation targeting due to inflation inertia. However, the new strategy changes communication with potential impact.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Allowing inflation overshoots, to achieve higher average inflation, will have an impact if and when inflation actually rises to 2%.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
To do list:
1) Survive economic crisis
20) Debate how we will react years from now when the economy overheats
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Allowing unemployment to glide downward during longer expansions has been Fed policy for decades. The Fed has tried to inflate but failed.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is an awfully vague question. I cannot answer it well.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The Fed's analytical tools are far too crude to implement such fine tuning.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Probably minimal effect, but could have negative effect that Fed will become more political.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Their ability to forecast and control inflation is a lot more tenuous than their rhetoric suggests.
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It hasn't kept 10 year inflation forecasts from edging down.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
It is a sensible revision at the lower bound. A decade is a long time, and this could help the recovery once underway.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The Fed is still vague on implementation - recently hinting that it would tolerate inflation beyond its target - on which much depends.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
It depends on the details of how the strategy is implemented.
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The change will justify later liftoff and (I hope) could change inflation expectations so inflation rises and provides more buffer
-see background information here |
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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