Question A:
By lowering bargaining costs, fast-track negotiating authority for the president makes it more likely that the U.S. can conclude major trade deals.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
Question B Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
We underestimate the costs of trade through employment (e.g. with low-wage countries in manufacturing), net benefits still likely to be +.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Trade made certain, especially lower quality, goods cheaper but also transferred some jobs.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
V likely more Americans have benefited but losses for some are substantial. Social welfare calculations are complicated.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Wrong question-should be world welfare, not US welfare. I view policy as a citizen of the world. Trade is generally beneficial to the world.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Trade deals typically reduce barriers to trade which is likely to produce net gains to the U.S. ( although there can be winners and losers).
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Most (though not all) Americans gain b/c consumption & productivity benefits outweigh loss of industry/occupation-specific human capital.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Employment adjustments may hurt some, but good policy can limit those losses in terms of duration and extent.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Trade deals are about expanding consumption choices not about jobs. Ross Perot's giant sucking sound is a myth
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Unfortunately, benefitting most still leaves ample room for adverse effects for some.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
However we could have done more to compensate the loosers
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Positive aggregate benefits does not imply that most Americans benefit, but it seems likely in this case.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
The problem is that those who have been hurt have typically not been compensated.
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