Question A:
By lowering bargaining costs, fast-track negotiating authority for the president makes it more likely that the U.S. can conclude major trade deals.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
2%
0%
0%
5%
53%
35%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
2%
54%
45%
Question B:
Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
2%
0%
0%
9%
67%
16%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
7%
70%
23%
Question A Participant Responses
Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We underestimate the costs of trade through employment (e.g. with low-wage countries in manufacturing), net benefits still likely to be +.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trade made certain, especially lower quality, goods cheaper but also transferred some jobs.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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V likely more Americans have benefited but losses for some are substantial. Social welfare calculations are complicated.
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wrong question-should be world welfare, not US welfare. I view policy as a citizen of the world. Trade is generally beneficial to the world.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trade deals typically reduce barriers to trade which is likely to produce net gains to the U.S. ( although there can be winners and losers).
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Most (though not all) Americans gain b/c consumption & productivity benefits outweigh loss of industry/occupation-specific human capital.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Employment adjustments may hurt some, but good policy can limit those losses in terms of duration and extent.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trade deals are about expanding consumption choices not about jobs. Ross Perot's giant sucking sound is a myth
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unfortunately, benefitting most still leaves ample room for adverse effects for some.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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However we could have done more to compensate the loosers
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Positive aggregate benefits does not imply that most Americans benefit, but it seems likely in this case.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The problem is that those who have been hurt have typically not been compensated.
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