US

Fast-Track Authority

Question A:

By lowering bargaining costs, fast-track negotiating authority for the president makes it more likely that the U.S. can conclude major trade deals.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fast track limits the power of special interest groups.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
obvious
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Complicated question outside my expertise
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
If one party can make a take-it-or- leave-it offer to another party, a deal is often more likely than if bargaining occurs. But not always.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
If president is pro-trade, the answer is yes. However, giving an anti-trade president greater powers could reduce quality of trade agreemts
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Without something like fast track, trade deals are notoriously difficult.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Fast track reduces the number of groups that must agree to the trade pact
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
We underestimate the costs of trade through employment (e.g. with low-wage countries in manufacturing), net benefits still likely to be +.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Trade made certain, especially lower quality, goods cheaper but also transferred some jobs.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
V likely more Americans have benefited but losses for some are substantial. Social welfare calculations are complicated.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Wrong question-should be world welfare, not US welfare. I view policy as a citizen of the world. Trade is generally beneficial to the world.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Trade deals typically reduce barriers to trade which is likely to produce net gains to the U.S. ( although there can be winners and losers).
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Most (though not all) Americans gain b/c consumption & productivity benefits outweigh loss of industry/occupation-specific human capital.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Employment adjustments may hurt some, but good policy can limit those losses in terms of duration and extent.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Trade deals are about expanding consumption choices not about jobs. Ross Perot's giant sucking sound is a myth
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Unfortunately, benefitting most still leaves ample room for adverse effects for some.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
However we could have done more to compensate the loosers
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Positive aggregate benefits does not imply that most Americans benefit, but it seems likely in this case.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The problem is that those who have been hurt have typically not been compensated.