Question A:
The new administration has issued three executive orders related to energy and climate:
Declaring a National Energy Emergency: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-energy-emergency/
'The United States’ insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to our Nation’s economy, national security, and foreign policy. In light of these findings, I hereby declare a national emergency.'
Insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitute a substantial threat to the US economy.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
0%
30%
33%
11%
9%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
48%
35%
6%
9%
2%
Question B:
Unleashing American Energy: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/
'The calculation of the “social cost of carbon” is marked by logical deficiencies, a poor basis in empirical science, politicization, and the absence of a foundation in legislation… rendering the United States economy internationally uncompetitive… the Administrator of the EPA shall issue guidance to address these harmful and detrimental inadequacies, including consideration of eliminating the “social cost of carbon” calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision.'
Eliminating the ‘social cost of carbon’ calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision would substantially improve the international competitiveness of the US economy.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
2%
30%
33%
17%
2%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
51%
31%
16%
2%
0%
Question C:
Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/
'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country’s values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives… The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'
Withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to US economic growth over the next four years.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
0%
24%
37%
17%
7%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
42%
37%
17%
5%
0%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
While more energy production can increase GDP in the short run, there is no shortage of energy or much evidence that low energy production is a "substantial" threats to the US economy.
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![]() Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The US needs to dramatically expand electricity generation capacity from noncarbon sources and transmission line capacity as the economy switches from fossil fuels.
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
The US is the world's largest gasoline exporter, and a net energy exporter. How could we be it that we are facing a domestic energy crisis or shortage?
-see background information here |
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
We are a net exporter so it is hard to see how there is a crisis of underproduction.
-see background information here |
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are fast-growing demands on US energy production and transmission, including from AI. I'm uncertain about how hard it will be to meet these needs. It would be better to meet them with sustainable forms of production than with heavily CO2-emitting sources.
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
We are swimming in energy, which is good for the US and for the world.
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Energy production in the US is at an all-time high. Energy production was flat during the W Bush administration but grew rapidly during both the Obama and Biden administrations. Any claim of an emergency is just an "alternative fact".
-see background information here |
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Look at what misguided energy policies have done to the German and UK economies.
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
In case you want to see the actual data see this link, we produce more than we consume
-see background information here |
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
The threat is not inadequate supply, but too much reliance on fossil fuel, which threatens not only the US but the world through climate effects. The Trump administration denies this threat, likely making things worse.
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||||
![]() Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There remain valuable opportunities to invest in infrastructure and green energy, but current US energy production is adequate and does not constitute an emergency.
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||||
![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
The US has become recently a net exporter of energy and petroleum products.
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
A joke.
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![]() Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
,WTI oil price is 25% below its 20-year mean, domestic oil and gas production are at record levels, U.S. is net exporter of gas and oil and world's largest LNG exporter. Solar and wind and battery projects are waiting to connect to the grid to meet data center demand. Etc.
-see background information here -see background information here |
||||
![]() Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
It's not "insufficient" production/transportation/refining/generation that is a threat, the threat comes from the fact that energy use (especially fossil fuels) has never been charged its full cost.
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||||
![]() Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Social cost of carbon is difficult to compute and few experts would say that current estimates are fully accurate. Nevertheless, such an estimate is a very important object for public policy in view of the very well-documented negative effects of carbon emissions.
|
||||
![]() Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is pure ideological backlash from people who categorically reject scientific conclusions when the science is inconvenient. These are the same people who believe that windmills cause cancer and that DEI causes plane crashes.
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||||
![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The US can't compete well if it ignores the cost of carbon emissions.
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||||
![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Eliminating one form of regulation is unlikely to do all that much, given the web of regulations that will remain.
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||||
![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
It will reduce regulatory burden and that will benefit the US economy today. Of course, government should aim to improve the well-being of US citizens more broadly and this requires balancing managing climate risks and growth (not choosing to believe the former does not exist).
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
American work on SCC is abysmal and driven more by ideology than science. Conservatives work to suppress innovation in this area. The solution is to do better work, not take the Trumpian "ignorance is bliss" approach.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
||||
![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Again, look at how costly these policies have been in Western Europe, particularly the UK and Germany.
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Maybe we get a short run boost from increasing brown production, but the rest of the world may move (and demand) cleaner sources.
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||||
![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Eliminating cost-of-carbon calculations might well improve the U.S.'s competitive position in the short run, since shifting away from fossil fuels is undoubtedly costly. But the long-term impact would very likely be negative.
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||||
![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Some US firms would become more competitive is they could ignore the social cost of their activities, but there are more important factors determining the competitiveness of the US economy, such as innovation.
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||||
![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Calculations of social cost of carbon are complicated and necessarily imprecise. However they are based on good empirical science. Ignoring SCC will make US products less competitive, specially as other countries adopt Carbon border adjustment mechanisms.
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||||
![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
There may be a small boost to competitiveness, but there will be a large hit to the environment.
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||||
![]() Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Making decisions under uncertainty, sometimes concerning long-lived investments, should include the best possible information about future costs.
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||||
![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The biggest regulation that has taken effect and used the SCC are CAFE rules but they apply to domestic sales of both domestic and imported vehicles so do not touch international competitiveness. Power prices would go up from the power plant rule but only slightly - small effect
|
||||
![]() Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
Carbon emissions are a global bad, so the proposal to free ride is tempting. Other countries make the same calculation, which threatens seriously bad outcomes. The US is big enough to make a difference in getting the actual cost of carbon incorporated into the price of energy.
|
||||
![]() Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
We are faced with many global challenges, including climate change, pandemics, AI safety and nuclear nonproliferation. In each case, global cooperation is key. Withdrawing from international agreements, esp. the second time around for Paris accord, deeply damages such cooperation
|
||||
![]() Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
In the short run, creating more pollution without heed to longterm health or climate consequences will probably increase growth, just like taking a dose of a methamphetamine will bring on temporary euphoria.
|
||||
![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The US might be able free-ride to some potential relative national benefit, but over a few years,. I don't foresee a measurable boost to US growth from a withdrawal from Paris the Agreement, especially if the growth is measured net of the cost of climate damage.
|
||||
![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
In isolation, the withdrawal probably has little impact on growth. But, difficult to separate from other efforts to remove penalties (subsidies) for carbon emissions (zero carbon energy sources). So, likely increases growth in next 4 year & increases future climate change
|
||||
![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't see how any of these international agreements hurt American productivity since they were not enforceable. Global warming is an international problem and will require international cooperation to solve. A USA exit can only hurt the situation.
|
||||
![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Best guess would be that over this horizon withdrawing is favorable for growth, but the wildcard is whether consumer demand (or state regulations, e.g. California) drive business decisions. Too early to tell.
|
||||
![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Commitments under the Paris agreement are non-binding. Withdrawing is symbolic but does not in itself change US policy options.
|
||||
![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not participating in the effort to curb climate change will hurt the U.S. (and the world) in the long run, but it's hard to say exactly when the negative consequences will set in.
|
||||
![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Renewables are an important potential source of growth.
|
||||
![]() Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
However it may boost Chinese world leadership
|
||||
![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Almost pure symbolism -- this is a voluntary agreement with no impact on growth. Leaving it will prevent our having a seat at the table in important negotiations.
|
||||
![]() Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The Paris agreement is nonbinding and voluntary. It also refers only to domestic emissions so if growth is to come from O&G exports those are burned abroad and don't count against the U.S. Paris NDC.
|
||||
![]() Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
In a narrow causal sense, I expect no effect. Withdrawal might be correlated with other decisions that influence outcomes in unknown directions.
|
||||
![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
4 years is probably too short to see any climate impacts of the possibly larger emissions that might result. So there might be some short run measured gains from looser regulation. Of course those gains are mismeasured, since they ignore the extra depreciation of natural capital.
|
||||
![]() Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|