Question A:
Greater integration of national markets for financial services, energy and telecommunications would give a measurable boost to Europe’s GDP over the next ten years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The potential benefits for GDP from loosening European merger rules to allow greater consolidation within the single market would outweigh the potential harm to consumers from weaker competition.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Financial services would benefit from being more competitive in Europe. Spreads and commissions are in general much higher than the US.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These are fairly integrated markets already. It can be improved, but I would not expect miracles.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Energy market fragmentation will be increasingly costly given the seasonality of energy markets. Financial market integration will avoid the risks of doom loops, plus increased scale will increase financing for innovative ventures (which now are prone to leave for US).
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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First order effect expected - iff (!) steps towards integration solve EU's sovereignty dilemma: decentralized supervision introduces biases in rule implementation, undermining trust by investors. Take Germany's Wirecard as an extreme example of national bias.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence of M&A activity on economic growth is fairly mixed.
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Letta report just out makes this clear, and the forthcoming Draghi report will back it up. So does Monti's new book.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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European companies seem to suffer from an under-scaling disadvantage in today's digital economy.
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree in principle but it will depend on the quality of regulation which need considerable improvement in many European countries.
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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where markets are not integrated, regulation has to be harmonized; I have little trust the EU will do a good job with that
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There may be some productivity boosts, particularly from greater integration of financial markets but in energy and telecommunications, this process could create a set of large firms that do not compete much on prices.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This seems to be one that should be done on a case-by-case basis rather than overall.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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can only be assessed case by case.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't see any reason to losen merger rules. They are fine and adequately only concern mergers with a significant impact on the EU market.
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While understanding the argument in the question posed, I am uncertain about the consequences. The net effect may be industry-dependent. E.g., European mergers in banking would actually increase competition, because they would open up otherwise largely closed national markets.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very difficult if not impossible welfare comparison. But if growth effects are weak benefits are unlikely to outweigh the harm. Also not clear that there is single market in the EU for many products and services
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even before the EU could transform into a federation, it must behave as a true Single Market. Individual country markets are too small, and the EU market would be sufficiently large to accommodate big cross-border players without excessive market dominance.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Weaker competition is, too often, much weaker competition. This is the new mercantilism in that, again, it comes from focussing on producer surplus and neglecting consumer surplus.
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Here again the benefits will depend on the implementation. Several European countries restrict M&A activity to prevent efficiency enhancing consolidations to protect national champion firms.
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While there are some industries where increased consolidation might be beneficial, a weakening of antitrust regulation would apply across the board. Result: increased market power with minimal productivity gains
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anti-competitive mergers are bad for consumers and not good for GDP.
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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concentration has been a disaster for US consumers; this is not desirable
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is not really my area of expertise but I think the strong implementation of competition law by the European Commission is one of the strengths of the single market.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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