Question A:
Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
2%
0%
4%
22%
30%
35%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
5%
20%
32%
43%
Question B:
While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
4%
2%
2%
4%
26%
54%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
3%
2%
3%
25%
67%
Question C:
Given the willingness of the European Central Bank to buy sovereign bonds, including Italian bonds, without limits, there is no need for ‘coronabonds’.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
9%
17%
24%
24%
13%
7%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
27%
26%
20%
17%
11%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure the comparison with the Spanish plague is fully appropriate since covid does not kill the labor force.
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the conclusion of most of the models I have looked at.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Strong lockdowns are good for disease control but bad for the economy - there is a policy trade-off
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree wherever there is limited availability of infection tests and restriction in tracing the contagion (Europe today).
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Testing and tracing as in South Korea might be better than severe lockdown
|
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hospital capacity is limited and the economic value of life in Europe is high
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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From a strict economic point of view, the longer and tighter the lockdowns the larger the negative effects (bankruptcies, debt, etc)
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given a situation of radical uncertainty with slow Bayesian updating on pandemic fundamentals, a maxmin strategy suggests tough action early
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No med expert, but several studies suggest strict measures have econ benefits of lives saved that outweigh value of projected losses of GDP.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mass sickness will not only disable many workers but will also reduce confidence and increase uncertainty.
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The alternative to lockdowns is not a return to "normal" but many people unwilling to work even though allowed to, and soaring death rates
|
||||
 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The faster you contain and eliminate contagion, the faster people can go back to work. If you do not, people will simply not go back to work
|
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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assuming medium term is long enough
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||||
 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lockdown should be able to get rid of the disease in the medium term. Less severe measures cannot unless they are accompanied by mass tests
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on the accompanying measures of a partial lockdown (testing and tracking, see Singapore)
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||||
 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are too many epidemiological unknowns. Much depends on exit path from lockdown.
|
||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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because it may allow faster reopen.
|
||||
 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Economic activity will return closer to normality when there is extensive testing and tracing. Lockdowns give time to develop this.
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ceteris paribus, but large-scale testing and selective isolation may be better. Watch out for the Swedish experiment too.
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||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Relying entirely on the ECB is dangerous.
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||||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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desirable yes, highly perhaps not. can go a long way with just domestic fiscal policies
|
||||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Closing borders will hamper the recovery
|
||||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Ex-post insurance seems a socially desirable mechanism when moral hazard is not involved.
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||||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If not now when? Common shock, potentially divergent consequences including externalities.
|
||||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Without a coordinated European answer, the crisis may spill into the banking sector, and also to sovereign risk - endangering the Eurozone
-see background information here |
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Coordination of response very desirable; Not clear more is needed right now, but solidarity is important & opportunity to show EU matters.
-see background information here -see background information here |
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A common currency area can only be sustained in the long run if the absence of country-level monetary policy is replaced by mutual insurance
|
||||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Common monetary policy combined with unlinked national fiscal policies has never made sense. In a crisis its problems are even greater
|
||||
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fighting a pandemic and recovering from it involves large externalities and gains from cooperation. If not now, when?
|
||||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If not now, when?
|
||||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
As in dealing with other crises coordinated fiscal policy is better for the group as a whole than independent policies
|
||||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Massive symmetric shock, some countries constrained by lack of fiscal space
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Avoids lots of competing debt issuance. Reduces market concerns about sovereign default on the bonds used to finance the crisis spending.
|
||||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A selective response. Need to allow all governments to run large temporary deficits. Coordination of targeted fiscal measures il illusory.
|
||||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The ECB would also have to roll over its holding over a long period + face legal and political problems
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Too strong: can do without bonds but with ecb commitment. more peace of mind with corona bonds
|
||||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I tend to disagree: a special treatment of Italy will create severe tensions if there cannot be ex-ante agreement on a mutualized solution.
|
||||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Coronabonds would allow for irresponsible long government spending, while ECB buying bonds would be a good discipline
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If the ECB response is sufficient to contain spreads, I agree. But this is uncertain at this point.
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not now needed to stabilize national financial markets, but desirable for dealing collectively with what is a common shock.
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The ECB can't do miracles. Rather, we must invent a better instrument than Corona-bonds - that avoids its traps and convinces its critics.
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
ECB strategy might give enough room, but not sure sustainable; prefer transparent fiscal response by EU; not sure co-bonds can deliver this.
-see background information here |
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Coronabonds would only be credible and equitable between countries if issued centrally, and that would require much greater integration
|
||||
|
Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Despite the ECB bond purchases, servicing Italian public debt is more expensive than servicing Eurobonds would.
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Coronabonds issued temporarily and eligible for purchase by the ECB would help solve the fiscal challenge in Europe.
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A joint fiscal response would be highly desirable, but it need not be through coronabonds.
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Corona bonds understood as long term bonds (30 years+) jointly issued would be the best response. Otherwise ECB under political pressure.
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It depends on the structure of these loans.
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Need depends on whose perspective you take. Beware political dangers of using this crisis to create eurobonds without federal institutions
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Europe will need several fiscal instruments to tackle different issues of mitigating this crisis, rebooting and opening borders again.
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
ECB secondary market purchases won't stop concerns about sovereign default.Questions also about the extent of credit losses ECB could take.
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
ECB is lender in last resort. Coronabonds or, better, a changed corona-lending by ESM should be first resort.
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
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