Question A:
Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
29%
6%
8%
31%
14%
10%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
16%
47%
18%
14%
5%
Question B:
Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
29%
16%
0%
12%
27%
14%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
24%
42%
26%
7%
Question C:
Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
29%
12%
0%
6%
18%
31%
4%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
12%
29%
50%
9%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There seem to be strong learning by doing effects. Subsidies can help target these where these effects are largest.
|
||||
 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Subsidies need to be financed through taxing other tax bases, with new distortions. Better to stick with the polluter-payer principle.
|
||||
 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
First pass: Fight a distortion, don't create a second one.
|
||||
 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Subsidizing renewable energy may induce innovation through learning by doing. Taxing carbon may just induce cross-border substitution.
|
||||
 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Better potential for double dividend.
|
||||
 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A tax is a more direct instrument for reducing emissions - the main goal - and R&D subsidies are at best an imperfect substitute.
|
||||
 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
CO2 tax better than either one; Subs require govmnt to pick energy source & hard to justify unless spur innovation w/ large spillovers.
|
||||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Given revenue neutrality, choosing between the policies hinges on uncertainty (which renewables?) & on macro considerations: stimulus better
|
||||
 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Tax plus subsidy acts on two fronts
|
||||
 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Budget constraint
|
||||
 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Pollution needs to be taxed. Governments need revenues.
|
||||
 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Carbon taxes can be very effective in steering technical change & doesn't require so direction http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1178.pdf
|
||||
 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Activities that generate negative externalities need direct discouragement
|
||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
These are equivalent measures, except that the first one raises the tax burden while the second one reduces it ceteris paribus.
|
||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The quicker we get up the learning curve for these technologies the better.
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Quite inefficient policy. Coal plants are still alive. Cost passed on households.
|
||||
|
Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
We all feel so good about them!!! :-) A serious answer to the question is hardly possible.
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
My understanding is that they have been very costly and not paid back for Germany.
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Wide range of estimates&benefits abroad; FiT&output sub often expensive; wind did better. Maybe offsetting benefits w/ energy independence
-see background information here -see background information here |
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
These policies are a global public good: clear net benefits for the world (emissions fall) but not necessarily for Germany
|
||||
|
Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I don't know enough about them to judge
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Germany has fiscal space.
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
German energy policy relies far too much on coal. Needs meaningful carbon price.
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
They look a high-cost way to get the benefits, many of which are non-German. Hard to judge the net effect.
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not so clear solar-power is the best alternative for Germany. I am afraid I don't know enough about the technologies and Germany's climate.
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The problem is less solar-energy subsidies than the phasing out of nuclear power.
|
||||
|
Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
China is exporting lots of solar panels!
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The R&D has had benefits and the point is that they are global, not German-specific. I have not seen any cost-benefit analysis though.
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Subs spurred tech dev & adoption that w’d not have occurred as quickly; also evidence of tech spillovers but size unclear yet crucial to Q.
-see background information here |
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Definitely positive, though clearly not necessarily very large relative to the scale of global emissions
|
||||
|
Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
They have reduced carbon emissions
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Positive externality of more solar energy adoption
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Again they look a high-cost way of doing it, even allowing for dynamic cost-reduction effects on solar power.
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The rest of the world stands to benefit from less toxic emissions in Germany at German taxpayer's expense.
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
