US

Employment and the US Economy

Question A:

The concept of “maximum sustainable employment” is well defined enough to be used beneficially in economic policymaking.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Right now the US economy is operating below maximum sustainable employment.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
I don't think it's well defined. Lots of policies and institutions affect employment. Which one is "sustainable"? Does it mean efficient?
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Emphasis on "well defined enough" -- meaning that it's not precisely defined, but still approximately useful.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Certainly not if it is interpreted as a fixed u*. We now know that unemployment dynamics following a major shock are complicated.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
As a labor and microeconomist, I find "maximum sustainable employment" to be only loosely grounded in economic reasoning.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
The traditional measurement is unemployment rate. The ratio of employment to population depends on demographics as much as economic health.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
in times like january 2009 it is obviously not true so having that in the Fed mandate helps, complicates times like now.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
How else can the Fed understand the dual mandate?
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Coming to a precise numbers is always difficult, but the concept is quite useful in thinking about our economy.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
enough is the operative word
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Not sure it is very useful at all times, though.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
The concept is clear enough but who knows how to measure it?
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The concept doesn't make sense. But of course we have policy options to increase efficiency in the labor market and employment. Lots of them
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Unemployment is down, which is great, but labor force participation still has a lot of headroom to rise.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Debate continues about whether currently discouraged workers are permanently discouraged, but I think views are converging.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Given that I disagree regarding the first question, the second question is not meaningful.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Until the next shock occurs, unemployment will continue to drift downward. The u rate in 1999 in MSP was 0.9 percent without dysfunction.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Having said that "maximum sustainable employment" is only loosely grounded in economics, I obviously cannot say whether we are at it or not.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The last time we had sustained unemployment rate below 4% was 66-69, the peak of the Viet Nam war.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Labor force participation, particularly for men, could be higher.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
maybe, but if i had to bet we are about there.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Probably above, perhaps at, but clearly not below by Fed’s own estimates.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
We might aspire to a higher labor force participation rate, but there is little evidence we can push the unemployment rates markedly lower.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Different indicators seem to be sending mixed signals.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
labor force participation rate down and little wage pressure suggests room to grow the labor force.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History