US

Economic Stimulus

Question A:

Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Subsidizing employment leads employment to go up, other things equal. Adverse impacts through growth incentives might take time.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
quit with the politics and just go read the official ARRA reports for a review of the evidence
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
All reasonable models have this implication, but there's enough the models are missing...
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
High confidence on an issue like this would be foolish.That being said, the depressing effect of future liabilities likely exceeded benefits
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
There has been no serious study of this. Most analyses that try to analyze 2008-2011 are too simple and/or plagued with mathematical errors.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
But this is an incredibly low bar.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Caveat: how much was it offset by less agressive (than otherwise) unconventional monetary policy?
-see background information here
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
The estimates are varied and the highest are based on ex ante models, not experienced-based data. The upper bound estimate is low.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
See the various CBO studies on the subject.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
With the caveat that there is no perfect experiment, the evidence suggests it boosted the economy.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Block grants to the states allowed them to cut education, health, and other services by less as state tax revenues fell.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Even clearer by 2011. Why ask about 2010 when much of the stimulus is slow acting? The stimulus project on my way to work just finishing.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
At the very minimum the transfer to the states prevented them from firing state employees. But I do not know how big the overall effect was

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
This is in part an empirical question and I think it would be difficult to answer this with any certainty.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I am working on this question now using my macro model. Any thoughts on what discount rate to use for increased future unemployment?
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This all depends on how much you value avoiding short-run collapse versus the costs long-term. But it’s not free.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
U.S. was losing 700K jobs per month & K markets were not functioning. economy was in crisis & ARRA helped, along with K markt interventions
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
I'd agree that the results are likely to be on the positive side, but I can think of future crashes caused by the accumulation of debt
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Feedback effects too complicated to calculate. My best guess is that the program was marginally beneficial, but monetary easing helped more.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
same as above
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Same as response to previous question.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Payoffs to special interests (& associated political costs that paralyzed other efforts) made it far less effective than it could have been
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Depends critically on how permanent and useful the stimulus to government spending.
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The cost is the enormous and tough-to-reverse growth of government. This swamps even high estimates of benefits. See my op-eds. that explain
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hard to know how the increased debt will be paid (Congress could make a mess of it), so some uncertainty here.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Not sure how to interpret "effects on future spending" but I'm persuaded the alternative (without the ARRA) would have put us on a bad path.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
This will depend on future tax and spending policies.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
How can anyone imagine this question is answerable, given the current state of economic science?
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The part of the economy where we are still losing jobs is gov employment. Gov can create its own recession by being short sighted.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History