Question A:
The termination of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Council and shrinking staff at the core US statistical agencies will lead to a substantial reduction in the reliability of government economic data.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
0%
0%
0%
9%
33%
50%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
6%
29%
65%
Question B:
The quality of economic policy-making will be substantially impaired by reduced funding for the core US statistical agencies.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
0%
0%
2%
0%
43%
46%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
1%
0%
36%
63%
Question C:
The ability of businesses to forecast and plan will be substantially impaired by lower quality economic data.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
0%
0%
0%
13%
46%
33%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
9%
43%
47%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The statistical agencies have had tight budgets for years, and have managed to do more with less through innovation. Large cuts, given current funding, will cut bone and muscle, not fat
-see background information here |
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Collecting reliable statistical information is a difficult, apolitical enterprise. There are no benefits to banishing expertise (and inserting political hacks)
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Especially in the long run for adapting to new situations.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I've served on FESAC for several years. The US can do without FESAC, but the staff of the statistical agencies in indespensable.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perhaps not immediately but in the long run.
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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To make good policy, data is needed to understand how the economy is currently performing and to examine potential key economic variables that are changing. The data is a public good and is not otherwise provided by the private sector.
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Getting data is not cheap. Should do more, not less.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Two reasons for uncertainty. AI will make data collection much more efficient. Private sector much better at data collection now.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bad question. Two completely different scenarios
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It will also make it easier to fudge official statistics. (see Kirchner, Cristina)
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Most likely is a slow degradation over time as surveys and data processing doesn't keep up with changes in the economy.
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The statistical agencies do amazing work with very limited resources. The advisory committees allowed the agencies to obtain volunteer expertise in a number of different technical areas. What a loss. (I was a member of the recently disbanded Census Scientific Advisory Committee.)
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Faith-based policy-making has a poor track record.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If policymakers were planning to ignore data, I suppose the lack of reliable data per se will not be the problem.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Quality federal statistics are a necessary ingredient to sound policy making.
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Facts are useful.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lots of data alternatives. Not sure how much policymaking relies on short-term government data.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Accurate federal statistics are important for policy, the private sector, and the public. If statistical quality declines, it will be have real costs.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is difficult to imagine making effective policy blindly.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Economic policy-making relies on reliable data, and again the ebb of reliability would be a long-term process.
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Everyone who has ever managed anything more than a one-car parade knows that it is harder to orchestrate anything without performance feedback, and these statistics are high-quality and often have no obvious substitutes.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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