US

Economic Recovery

Question A:

The US economy would be substantially stronger today if the state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had been more uniform and lasted longer in the first half of the year.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person nationwide.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
With better lockdown policies, there would have been tens of thousands of fewer deaths, but probably not much better GDP outcomes.
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Korea is the best case scenario. Germany had its act together. The U.S. response was chaotic, and this has slowed the eventual rebound
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Less people would have died--that is what we know for sure.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
more uniform: yes; longer: less clear vs, say, strict mandating of masks and social distancing.
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
The intervention should have been earlier, more targeted, and more thoughtful (complemented with more efficient testing and tracing).
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
The economy would be stronger if the stay at home time was used productively to rapidly ramp up testing and other virus responses.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
There are many many puzzling features of the dynamics of the pandemic, both here and around the world. So hard to know.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Yes, although we have since learned that very extensive use of masks, without a stay-at-home order, would have worked and been less costly.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Widespread availability of testing enabling targeted stay-at-home orders together with contact tracing would have made for stronger economy
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
We needed to slow the spread of the virus (still do). Consistency would help as would but it isn't just about shelter-in-place
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Unclear benefits of stay at home without without rigorous tracing, contact tracing, quarantining etc
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Research shows that almost all precautionary behavior would have occurred absent government orders
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
More targeted lockdowns that encouraged more economic activity would have done better.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Natural caution was very important, hard to know if just stay at home would have been enough to control the virus spread.
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Voluntary social distancing has been more uniform than lockdown policies.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Yes if uno]iform pol
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
There are great returns to mitigating a potentially exponential process early, and doing so uniformly (to avoid weakest-link vulnerabilies.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Unknowable. More businesses would have failed early on. Lots would depend on policies after the stay-at-home orders expired.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stronger lockdowns in some European countries have not prevented the need for second lockdowns.
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
But only if followed up by masks, testing & quarantine, etc upon reopening; more severe shutdowns alone wouldn't keep the virus suppressed.
-see background information here
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Yeah, probably but so many variables at play that it is hard to be sure about anything. Laws are not enforced.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I would be very confident if the longer & more uniform closings were accompanied by more testing and better tracing.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
The key word is SAFELY. That means COVID is under control. If schools open without that, second wave would be much worse and GDP would fall.
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Boost will come *years later* when students reach the labor market with more skills. Status quo is a disaster for human capital formation!
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I don't know why opening of schools would have a large causal effect, but may be it is a signal the economy can coordinate on.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Opening schools likely has a direct effect but also the question implies an environment in which the virus is under more control.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Especially women
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Parents could then resume more productive work. Also, this likely generates short-run and long-run benefits for children.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Likely to depend on time frame. If schools accelerate the virus spread a short-term boost might be more than offset later
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
"as soon as" is different from "because". When schools are safe to open, other activities will also be safe, making for a substantial boost.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
If causality is pandemic over, economy expands and schools open, it is the pandemic over, not the schools opening, that is the cause.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
You can't go to work if your kid has nowhere to go
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I agree bc the question implies that we have a vaccine or herd immunity
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Ability to have universal K-12 in-person schooling would be a sign of advanced progress in all respects against the virus.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
presumably other activities would also become safe then too
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Partly causal, but more as an indicator.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
‘Safely’ is big part of plan.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Education has long-run returns as well as well as great short-run returns in facilitating labor force participation of others.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Emphasis on "safely".
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The predicate for safe K-12 reopening is suppression of the virus and a strategy to keep it so; that plus freeing parents' time is key.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Will certainly help families with small children. Female labor force participation is way down. Same as it ever was.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History