Question A:
The US economy would be substantially stronger today if the state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had been more uniform and lasted longer in the first half of the year.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
0%
0%
7%
40%
42%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
9%
39%
46%
6%
Question B:
The economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person nationwide.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
0%
0%
0%
12%
63%
19%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
11%
63%
26%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
With better lockdown policies, there would have been tens of thousands of fewer deaths, but probably not much better GDP outcomes.
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Korea is the best case scenario. Germany had its act together. The U.S. response was chaotic, and this has slowed the eventual rebound
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Less people would have died--that is what we know for sure.
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
more uniform: yes; longer: less clear vs, say, strict mandating of masks and social distancing.
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
The intervention should have been earlier, more targeted, and more thoughtful (complemented with more efficient testing and tracing).
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The economy would be stronger if the stay at home time was used productively to rapidly ramp up testing and other virus responses.
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are many many puzzling features of the dynamics of the pandemic, both here and around the world. So hard to know.
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Yes, although we have since learned that very extensive use of masks, without a stay-at-home order, would have worked and been less costly.
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Widespread availability of testing enabling targeted stay-at-home orders together with contact tracing would have made for stronger economy
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
We needed to slow the spread of the virus (still do). Consistency would help as would but it isn't just about shelter-in-place
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Unclear benefits of stay at home without without rigorous tracing, contact tracing, quarantining etc
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Research shows that almost all precautionary behavior would have occurred absent government orders
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
More targeted lockdowns that encouraged more economic activity would have done better.
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Natural caution was very important, hard to know if just stay at home would have been enough to control the virus spread.
-see background information here |
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Voluntary social distancing has been more uniform than lockdown policies.
-see background information here |
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Yes if uno]iform pol
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![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are great returns to mitigating a potentially exponential process early, and doing so uniformly (to avoid weakest-link vulnerabilies.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Unknowable. More businesses would have failed early on. Lots would depend on policies after the stay-at-home orders expired.
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Stronger lockdowns in some European countries have not prevented the need for second lockdowns.
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
But only if followed up by masks, testing & quarantine, etc upon reopening; more severe shutdowns alone wouldn't keep the virus suppressed.
-see background information here |
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Yeah, probably but so many variables at play that it is hard to be sure about anything. Laws are not enforced.
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
I would be very confident if the longer & more uniform closings were accompanied by more testing and better tracing.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
The key word is SAFELY. That means COVID is under control. If schools open without that, second wave would be much worse and GDP would fall.
|
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Boost will come *years later* when students reach the labor market with more skills. Status quo is a disaster for human capital formation!
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't know why opening of schools would have a large causal effect, but may be it is a signal the economy can coordinate on.
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Opening schools likely has a direct effect but also the question implies an environment in which the virus is under more control.
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Especially women
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Parents could then resume more productive work. Also, this likely generates short-run and long-run benefits for children.
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Likely to depend on time frame. If schools accelerate the virus spread a short-term boost might be more than offset later
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
"as soon as" is different from "because". When schools are safe to open, other activities will also be safe, making for a substantial boost.
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
If causality is pandemic over, economy expands and schools open, it is the pandemic over, not the schools opening, that is the cause.
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
You can't go to work if your kid has nowhere to go
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
I agree bc the question implies that we have a vaccine or herd immunity
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||||
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Ability to have universal K-12 in-person schooling would be a sign of advanced progress in all respects against the virus.
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||||
![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
presumably other activities would also become safe then too
|
||||
![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Partly causal, but more as an indicator.
-see background information here |
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
‘Safely’ is big part of plan.
|
||||
![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Education has long-run returns as well as well as great short-run returns in facilitating labor force participation of others.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Emphasis on "safely".
|
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The predicate for safe K-12 reopening is suppression of the virus and a strategy to keep it so; that plus freeing parents' time is key.
|
||||
![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Will certainly help families with small children. Female labor force participation is way down. Same as it ever was.
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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