ECB Asset Purchases

Question A:

The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Aghion
Philippe Aghion
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
It's difficult to know the effect of these asset purchases on consumer price inflation.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baldwin
Richard Baldwin
The Graduate Institute Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hard to see how monetary expansion, in whatever form, would do nothing for activity or inflation. Cannot think of strong perverse effects
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I am skeptical that there was a real threat of deflation
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The evidence (e.g. Andrade et al. (2016)) points to reductions in risk premia as well as in expected future policy rates at announcement.
-see background information here
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hard to distinguish between role of purchases and of negative rates (via the exchange rate channel). Both probably helped
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hellwig
Martin Hellwig
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
The associated compression of bank profitability had a significant countervailing effect.
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
100 years of monetary theory cannot all be wrong.
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
APP has desired real effects iff credit supply is the problem, not demand, nor structural reform. Moreover, is mild deflation a threat?
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
QE likely helped w/ deflationary pressures but by how much is unclear. There are also negative effects that question sets aside.
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Reduced but not eliminated. Monetary policy alone cannot get the EU out of deflation, only a rise in external demand or a fiscal stimulus.
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
one of the few things we know with some confidence in macro is that increasing the supply of money reduces the risk of deflation
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Inflation expectations in Eurozone became 'de-anchored' by summer 2014. ECB action, though too long delayed, was essential to stop deflation
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Panelist meant to vote Strongly Agree
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
They ensured that no self -fulling vicious risk premium dynamics happen in periphery and appropriate loose monetary conditions remain.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
QE is complex but most careful research shows it impacts long-term rates. ECB program has definitely reduced sovereign borrowing rates.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
This is what comes from empirical studies, but SD are often large.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Aghion
Philippe Aghion
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
It seems quite uncertain to me what the effect on growth of the asset purchases. It will depend among other things on how they are unwound
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baldwin
Richard Baldwin
The Graduate Institute Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
one may disagree with ``strongly''. but it would work in the right direction.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The key issue is to maintain nominal interest rates below nominal growth during a certain period.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
the ECB program is not targeted directly to stimulate growth. It may help the economy recovering but it is not its main goal
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
I am not convinced that simply more of the same (QE) would have a significant impact at this stage.
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Economic activity can be helped by this type of measure in the short run, but not in the long run
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
It could help marginally by exploiting the same channels, though possibly with decreasing returns. But alternatives exist: fiscal policy.
-see background information here
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
purchases have achieved what they were supposed to. Unlikely they can do more--though in the case described they should not be removed
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hellwig
Martin Hellwig
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
If slow growth is due to high leverage of nonfinancial and financial firms, substantial new growth requires that to be dealt with first.
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Benefit mainly in the stressed countries; effectiveness of this policy nearing its limit.
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
APP may have opposite effect: Expectations of unsustainable debt levels at states and banks leading to low interest rates & low growth.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Perhaps one could make a case for an extension of the program (in case of a shock) but I am skeptical about further expansion.
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
"Substantial" Is a big ask, and growth will ultimately be affected more by structural issues and demand-side shocks
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Hard to tell. In any event, ECB aims to manage inflation rather than boost growth.
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
It will bring confidence that deflation will not return but whether this is enough to "substantially" increase growth is uncertain
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Major constraints on expanding asset purchase program and diminishing marginal returns.
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Not clear what the question means: inflation, real growth, financial stability? if it means weaker growth and inflation then strongly agree
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
If spreads diverge (self-fulfilling debt crisis) in peri[hery, restoring monetary policy tramsmission will be key.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Diminishing returns to such a policy
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
The disagreement is because of the word "substantial". Not sure that any realistic policy can "substantially" improve European growth rates.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Available assets are getting scarce.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History