US

Dynamic Scoring

Question A:

Changing federal income tax rates, or the income bases to which those rates apply, can affect federal tax revenues partly by altering people’s behavior, and thus their actual or reported incomes.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

To the extent that a given tax change might affect revenues partly by affecting national-income growth, existing research provides enough guidance to generate informative bounds on the size of any growth-driven revenue effect.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

For large proposed changes in tax rates or the tax base, official revenue forecasts provided to Congress would probably be more accurate if the CBO and JCT tried to estimate fully how the proposed tax changes would affect growth-driven revenue.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Well duh!
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The behavioral response might be small for certain tax code changes, though.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
duh
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The only possible question is the magnitude.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Consider an increase of income tax rates to 100%. Reported income would be close to zero after this.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Lots of evidence for this in a number of papers.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
some tax changes more salient than others, but people do respond when the stakes are important
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Not always predictably, of course.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
This is a very weak statement!
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Of course this is right. But magnitudes matter a lot.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
More is know about static effects on labor supply, labor demand and investment than on productivity growth, which is key to long term growth
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
We're still debating the impact of TFRA 86 on economic growth. Clearly, our confidence intervals are infinite for these predictions.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The bounds might be wide, though.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
"Enough" is the issue. We have models which provide estimates. There is a large cloud of uncertainty around these estimates.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Dynamic scoring: A back-of-the-envelope guide, N. Gregory Mankiw, Matthew Weinzierl, J. Pub. Econ. 2006
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
go read it. it does no such thing
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Taxes affect level of economic activity in long run But evidence doesn't exist for meaningful revenue predictions esp in near or medium term
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
A lot depends on the response of monetary policy, and there is no agreement on how much policy should or does respond to output changes.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I doubt that we know enough. There are disagreements about the response of labor supply to moderate changes in income tax rates.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
That work does not try to model the true economy. E.g., no model of corp inc tax uses a valid price of risk. Economists prefer ignorance.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
don't think we know for many types of changes
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maybe in some cases. Seems like a hard problem in general.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
It's always difficult to turn qualitative predictions into precise estimates, but existing research can surely be helpful.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The bounds likely rule out some outcomes but may be very wide
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
In most cases we know very little. Chetty et al Danish study finds tax effects explain 1% of saving, design 99%.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
I worry about increased scope for political influences on the forecasts.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
I feel that this type of projection is unwise: first-order impacts on policy but almost zero reliability. And it invites gaming.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
In theory they could provide many estimates under different scenarios. But picking one number or a likely range would introduce politics.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
I thought they had already done this at CBO. If not, the research indicates they should give it a try. The stakes are relatively large.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
it would open the process up to political shenanigans of the worst kind
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
poor state of literature would open the door to "judgment" which seems likely to devolve to political wrangling and lots of uncertainty
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Again, the response of other elements of policy, monetary and fiscal, needs to be factored in, and there is great uncertainty.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The estimates would not be perfect but they would be better than assuming no response.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
It's wrong of them not to TRY because then they are knowingly getting things wrong. However, they could easily make a mess of it.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
It certainly would not be worse. Unfortunately, this is the kind of research that NSF kills.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
We know the direction and for certain types of changes might have some decent estimates. But politics could corrupt the process too
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Possibly. They might also be less transparent and/or easy to criticize.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The difficulties are that (a) knowledge of these has wide bounds and (b) communicating uncertainty bounds is virtually impossible.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Behavioral responses will be most important for large changes, but the effects of large changes are particularly difficult to estimate.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It depends on which estimates they used.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
If done honestly, maybe, but the temptation to tilt would be strong. It is the rare tax cut that increases tax revenues.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History