Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Legalizing marijuana in places where it's illegal, without interfering with state policies that have already legalized it would be an improvement. There is no evidence that legalization has led to big negative effects and further legalization would reduce criminal involvement
Aguiar
Mark Aguiar
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
This completely depends on which supporting rules are put in place fo oversight, distribution, access control, enforcement, taxation. Done well, this would improve on the current regime. But even our current deregulation regime is glutted with crime and foreign crime involvement
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I am not sure what you mean by social welfare but it would be great if everyone in prison for illegally selling marijuana in the past get pardoned and such imprisonment stops for ever
Bergemann
Dirk Bergemann
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Social welfare can mean a lot of things, and such a policy would effect many groups very differently.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
My understanding is that the compliance costs required for research labs to study the efficacy and harms of Sched 1 drugs are much higher than for Sched 3. Lowering the barriers to such studies, given the widespread use of cannabis under state laws, seems a worthy policy goal.
-see background information here
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Glaeser
Edward Glaeser
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
I would go further and legalize it, as in Massachusetts
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hurst
Erik Hurst
Chicago Booth
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Most states already allow medical marijuana use. So, in most states, it will have no effect. It may be best to decriminalize completely.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Marijuana is no worse than alcohol. Like alcohol, its use should be regulated to keep it away from minors and to prevent harm to others. Law enforcement efforts would be better spent on dealing with abuse of alcohol (and marijuana).
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
My sense of the evidence in states that have legalized is that there are very mixed results.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Pathak
Parag Pathak
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
It is a step in the right direction, but not sure about size of impact.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
It would still be illegal under federal law with potentially substantial penalties. Perhaps enforcement would be relaxed, but perhaps not.
Scott Morton
Fiona Scott Morton
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The relative dangers of these drugs are now well known. Marijuana is legal in many states.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Stantcheva
Stefanie Stantcheva
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Direct effects: lower cost for sellers through a tax change, and an upward shift in demand. Hence sales will increase, leading to more and better targets for armed robberies, since it will still be a cash-only business. There will be winners and losers. On net, ambiguous.
Syverson
Chad Syverson
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schedule I for marijuana is a decades-old mistake that created massive enforcement costs (direct and spillover). Moving away from it helps. Further moves in that direction may be optimal.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Not difficult.
Werning
Ivan Werning
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Marginal move to catch up with reality, voters and state laws. Symbolically: bigger inflection point on War on Drugs. But whatever one thinks of that "war", having heroin and marijuana in same class is no longer justifiable. Uruguay and Canada doing fine with legal marijuana.