Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Legalizing marijuana in places where it's illegal, without interfering with state policies that have already legalized it would be an improvement. There is no evidence that legalization has led to big negative effects and further legalization would reduce criminal involvement
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
This completely depends on which supporting rules are put in place fo oversight, distribution, access control, enforcement, taxation. Done well, this would improve on the current regime. But even our current deregulation regime is glutted with crime and foreign crime involvement
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
I am not sure what you mean by social welfare but it would be great if everyone in prison for illegally selling marijuana in the past get pardoned and such imprisonment stops for ever
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Social welfare can mean a lot of things, and such a policy would effect many groups very differently.
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
My understanding is that the compliance costs required for research labs to study the efficacy and harms of Sched 1 drugs are much higher than for Sched 3. Lowering the barriers to such studies, given the widespread use of cannabis under state laws, seems a worthy policy goal.
-see background information here |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I would go further and legalize it, as in Massachusetts
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Most states already allow medical marijuana use. So, in most states, it will have no effect. It may be best to decriminalize completely.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Marijuana is no worse than alcohol. Like alcohol, its use should be regulated to keep it away from minors and to prevent harm to others. Law enforcement efforts would be better spent on dealing with abuse of alcohol (and marijuana).
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
My sense of the evidence in states that have legalized is that there are very mixed results.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
It is a step in the right direction, but not sure about size of impact.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
It would still be illegal under federal law with potentially substantial penalties. Perhaps enforcement would be relaxed, but perhaps not.
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The relative dangers of these drugs are now well known. Marijuana is legal in many states.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Direct effects: lower cost for sellers through a tax change, and an upward shift in demand. Hence sales will increase, leading to more and better targets for armed robberies, since it will still be a cash-only business. There will be winners and losers. On net, ambiguous.
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Schedule I for marijuana is a decades-old mistake that created massive enforcement costs (direct and spillover). Moving away from it helps. Further moves in that direction may be optimal.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not difficult.
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Marginal move to catch up with reality, voters and state laws. Symbolically: bigger inflection point on War on Drugs. But whatever one thinks of that "war", having heroin and marijuana in same class is no longer justifiable. Uruguay and Canada doing fine with legal marijuana.
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