Question A:
The European Commission has proposed new rules to ensure that “digital business activities are taxed in a fair and growth-friendly way in the EU”. Consider two statements regarding this proposal:
An EU-wide 3% tax on revenue from digital activities would, on balance, be a good idea.
An EU-wide 3% tax on revenue from digital activities would, on balance, be a good idea.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
27%
13%
2%
6%
23%
25%
4%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
12%
30%
44%
9%
Question B:
If the EU decides to tax digital service providers, it would be better — given the difficulties of measuring and verifying digital activity — to tax them on the revenue, rather than the profits, that they generate locally.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
27%
13%
2%
4%
21%
29%
4%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
6%
9%
23%
54%
9%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The digital companies need to be taxed. This seems the best way to do it that I have heard.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But I'm not sure whether 3% is close to optimal tax
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably not the first best, but a witholding tax could help restoring fair competition.
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Low elasticity of the supply and demand, so low welfare loss
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A not unreasonable temporary stop-gap to meet a dysfunctional current situation. Distributional consequences between member states, though.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A "fair" digital tax should allocate the tax base (profits) virtually among producer and consumer countries; a 3% tax may start negotiations
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I simply don’t understand the motivation.
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Good idea to put the topic on agenda, but costs and benefits are quite uncertain at this point. Revenue generated is small given exemptions
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Why 3%? Important not to be perceived as targeting US firms specifically. But something has to be done.
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The proposed tax is on revenues not profits. profit margins differ across firms; and even some large startups do not have profits
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There needs to be a good rationale for further distorting tax system in this way and if don’t see it.
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Generally best to tax profits or value added and not revenue. Hard to know why 3% would be the right figure.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Profits are fairly meaningless for these companies since they can use accounting charges to move the profits to very low tax rate places.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't fully understand. Is the idea that costs are harder to verify than revenue for this activity? Or is it motivated by profit shifting?
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Profit is even more difficult to localize than revenue.
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The issue (both legal, and technical) is whether it can be done for digital companies and not for others.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Corporate taxation is so complex that unintended consequences abound. I would rather say tax on revenue as well as on profits.
|
||||
|
Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, but profit taxation requires negotiations between countries to share the tax base (unlikely to work in todays protectionist world)
|
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on the motivation behind the tax, which I don’t understand.
|
||||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I agree local profits for digital are very difficult to determine, easy to shift & taxing consumption could make sense. But much uncertain.
|
||||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If we are honest most of the profits are generated in the US and that may be the main rationale for an EU revenue tax.
|
||||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
entry of new (not yet profitable) firms gets more difficult, they also have to pay revenue tax. Profit margins differ across revenue streams
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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