US

Department of Education

Given that much of the Department of Education's budget is allocated to postsecondary education (including Pell grants and student loans), closing the department would have no measurable effect on the average K to 12th grade school student.

Link: https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/USDeptOfEducation_2024_Appropriations.pdf

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
It is difficult to see how without funding and oversight from the DOE, K-12 wouldn't be majorly affected. Closing the department seems an extreme step. That being said, it is true that the department does need major reforms.
Aguiar
Mark Aguiar
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
The Department of Education provides substantial funding for disadvantaged students, special education. English language instruction, school improvement, and education research.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Without benchmarking or oversight by DOE, I suspect that states and will become heterogeneous in educational policy. Some of these innovations will be productive, others profoundly counterproductive. Few will be evaluated, so it will be difficult to know which is which.
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bergemann
Dirk Bergemann
Yale
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
I do not have enough background information to make an informed decision concerning this question.
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
If this question means that the funding for Title 1 (for example) disappears, I read the evidence as implying that that would have real impacts on low income students and students in schools w many low income students.
-see background information here
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Students and their parents are forward looking. They think about college access.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
There is an opportunity cost for K-12 education, because survival of the Department of Education allows for potential new K-12 federal programs, which could be effective at improving K-12 outcomes.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
At the very least, college opportunities provide incentives for younger students.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Glaeser
Edward Glaeser
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I don't know how to answer this question because it does not specify what would happen to the money if the Dept of Education were closed.. Would the post-secondary grants and loans continue (administered by a different department) or would they be eliminated?
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
There’s power that comes from communicating to states what you would like to see. That can affect the debate and what students are taught.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
This would surely degrade the whole system of education, directly and indirectly in many ways. Especially for disadvantaged children.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The US Dept of Ed mostly implements policies legislated by Congress. The policies would just have to be implemented by another department if USDoEd were closed. However, USDoEd's data, statistical, evaluation, & innovation efforts are valuable despite costing very little.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Hurst
Erik Hurst
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
If high school students see a decline in funding for college, they may instead take courses that prepare them for the job market immediately after graduation. Preparation for college depends on expectations of future college costs.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Closing it may even have a positive effect if it pushes more responsibility for education more locally.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
How much flows to the average student? It is telling that the Dept of Ed does not break out its budget in an easy way to see how it spends. Of course, some K to 12 students will be adversely impacted--am assuming other mandated spending obligations continue elsewhere.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
$30 billion or is spent on K-12 (about 12% of all K-12 funding).
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
It is absurd to think the quality and quantity of US college graduates does not impact K-12 education in multiple ways.
Pathak
Parag Pathak
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
The bulk of DOE programs and expenditures target postsecondary education. However, through its administration of the No Child Left Behind or Every Student Succeeds or possible subsequent acts, the DOE can have a significant effect on K-12 education.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The Department has significant spending for poor and disabled K-12 students who by definition are not average, and for all I know it may have important programs that involve much spending.
Scott Morton
Fiona Scott Morton
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Dept of Ed affects K-12 education through both rules and funding.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Closing DOE will likely have little impact on K-12 school budgets. But if closing DOE leads to a reduction in loans for college attendance, then doing so will impact the choices and opportunities available to K-12 students.
Stantcheva
Stefanie Stantcheva
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Syverson
Chad Syverson
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Depends whether the K-12 money would go away with the Department. In my school board experience, federal Title I money was important. Cutting that would matter. But not much will change if money stays the same under different administrative oversight.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
I am sure that this is not a good question. Does whatever the DoE do besides grants and loans have an expected positive NPV? Dunno!
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History