Given that much of the Department of Education's budget is allocated to postsecondary education (including Pell grants and student loans), closing the department would have no measurable effect on the average K to 12th grade school student.
Link: https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/USDeptOfEducation_2024_Appropriations.pdf
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
It is difficult to see how without funding and oversight from the DOE, K-12 wouldn't be majorly affected. Closing the department seems an extreme step. That being said, it is true that the department does need major reforms.
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The Department of Education provides substantial funding for disadvantaged students, special education. English language instruction, school improvement, and education research.
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Without benchmarking or oversight by DOE, I suspect that states and will become heterogeneous in educational policy. Some of these innovations will be productive, others profoundly counterproductive. Few will be evaluated, so it will be difficult to know which is which.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
I do not have enough background information to make an informed decision concerning this question.
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
If this question means that the funding for Title 1 (for example) disappears, I read the evidence as implying that that would have real impacts on low income students and students in schools w many low income students.
-see background information here |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Students and their parents are forward looking. They think about college access.
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is an opportunity cost for K-12 education, because survival of the Department of Education allows for potential new K-12 federal programs, which could be effective at improving K-12 outcomes.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
At the very least, college opportunities provide incentives for younger students.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't know how to answer this question because it does not specify what would happen to the money if the Dept of Education were closed.. Would the post-secondary grants and loans continue (administered by a different department) or would they be eliminated?
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
There’s power that comes from communicating to states what you would like to see. That can affect the debate and what students are taught.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
This would surely degrade the whole system of education, directly and indirectly in many ways. Especially for disadvantaged children.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The US Dept of Ed mostly implements policies legislated by Congress. The policies would just have to be implemented by another department if USDoEd were closed. However, USDoEd's data, statistical, evaluation, & innovation efforts are valuable despite costing very little.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
If high school students see a decline in funding for college, they may instead take courses that prepare them for the job market immediately after graduation. Preparation for college depends on expectations of future college costs.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Closing it may even have a positive effect if it pushes more responsibility for education more locally.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
How much flows to the average student? It is telling that the Dept of Ed does not break out its budget in an easy way to see how it spends. Of course, some K to 12 students will be adversely impacted--am assuming other mandated spending obligations continue elsewhere.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
$30 billion or is spent on K-12 (about 12% of all K-12 funding).
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
It is absurd to think the quality and quantity of US college graduates does not impact K-12 education in multiple ways.
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The bulk of DOE programs and expenditures target postsecondary education. However, through its administration of the No Child Left Behind or Every Student Succeeds or possible subsequent acts, the DOE can have a significant effect on K-12 education.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
The Department has significant spending for poor and disabled K-12 students who by definition are not average, and for all I know it may have important programs that involve much spending.
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Dept of Ed affects K-12 education through both rules and funding.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Closing DOE will likely have little impact on K-12 school budgets. But if closing DOE leads to a reduction in loans for college attendance, then doing so will impact the choices and opportunities available to K-12 students.
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends whether the K-12 money would go away with the Department. In my school board experience, federal Title I money was important. Cutting that would matter. But not much will change if money stays the same under different administrative oversight.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
I am sure that this is not a good question. Does whatever the DoE do besides grants and loans have an expected positive NPV? Dunno!
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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