If the US reduced its fiscal deficit, then its trade deficit would also shrink.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
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10%
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2%
29%
33%
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Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
6%
37%
57%
0%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
By identity, current account = financial account. But this doesn't mean that causality runs from budget deficit or current account.
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is the "twin deficits hypothesis," which may or may not hold, depending on what happens to other categories of spending in response.
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
it depends on how private saving/investment responds. i'm unaware of decisive empirical evidence on this (but perhaps it exists)
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on the fiscal action--more likely with a cut in government purchases
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
It depends on how it is done. Taxes up? Government expenditure down? It is also possible to have a large trade deficit with fiscal balance.
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
If a dynamically balanced budget is expected, then timing of fiscal deficits will not affect anything.
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It depends on how the budget deficit is reduced, of course.
-see background information here |
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on how the fiscal deficit reduction is achieved. If through higher consumer/income taxes, then trade deficit would probably decline.
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Standard open economy macro for long run/full employment. Subject to reservations on timing, size, and equilibrium nominal interest rate.
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are so many variables at work here, including how the deficit is reduced, to be sure of the effect.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
All else equal...
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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