US

Deficits

If the US reduced its fiscal deficit, then its trade deficit would also shrink.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
By identity, current account = financial account. But this doesn't mean that causality runs from budget deficit or current account.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
This is the "twin deficits hypothesis," which may or may not hold, depending on what happens to other categories of spending in response.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
it depends on how private saving/investment responds. i'm unaware of decisive empirical evidence on this (but perhaps it exists)
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the fiscal action--more likely with a cut in government purchases
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It depends on how it is done. Taxes up? Government expenditure down? It is also possible to have a large trade deficit with fiscal balance.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
If a dynamically balanced budget is expected, then timing of fiscal deficits will not affect anything.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
It depends on how the budget deficit is reduced, of course.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Depends on how the fiscal deficit reduction is achieved. If through higher consumer/income taxes, then trade deficit would probably decline.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Standard open economy macro for long run/full employment. Subject to reservations on timing, size, and equilibrium nominal interest rate.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
There are so many variables at work here, including how the deficit is reduced, to be sure of the effect.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
All else equal...
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History