If the US reduced its fiscal deficit, then its trade deficit would also shrink.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
By identity, current account = financial account. But this doesn't mean that causality runs from budget deficit or current account.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is the "twin deficits hypothesis," which may or may not hold, depending on what happens to other categories of spending in response.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
it depends on how private saving/investment responds. i'm unaware of decisive empirical evidence on this (but perhaps it exists)
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on the fiscal action--more likely with a cut in government purchases
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
It depends on how it is done. Taxes up? Government expenditure down? It is also possible to have a large trade deficit with fiscal balance.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
If a dynamically balanced budget is expected, then timing of fiscal deficits will not affect anything.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It depends on how the budget deficit is reduced, of course.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on how the fiscal deficit reduction is achieved. If through higher consumer/income taxes, then trade deficit would probably decline.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Standard open economy macro for long run/full employment. Subject to reservations on timing, size, and equilibrium nominal interest rate.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are so many variables at work here, including how the deficit is reduced, to be sure of the effect.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
All else equal...
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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