Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cuba is stuck in the 1950s primarily due to its internal policies not external constraints.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Of course, lost tourism opportnties, etc. might also be important. Parsing it out an empirical question.
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sanctions are not perfectly binding, and other countries subject to U.S.sanctions have continued to grow.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems likely, but I know nothing concrete about the Cuban economy.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The embargo is also likely to have been an important factor, and may be partly responsible for sustaining Cuba's internal economic policies.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trade certainly matters for growth. Many countries though would trade with Cuba, so probably its own policies were more important.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cuba's economic policies were flawed, but cutting off a small country from the rest of the world has detrimental effects on its growth.
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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communist dictatorship not exactly a growth strategy. I bet that stated growth rate even overstates reality
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That is, with free-market policies and honest competent government, a Caribbean country could prosper without US trade or tourists.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If Cuba allocated labor & capital to the most productive uses, growth would be higher. The US is too small as % of world trade to prevent it
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gravity model suggests adverse effects from the embargo, but destroying the price system and using command and control instead hurts more.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The embargo was mitigated by Cuban trade with other countries (trade diversion).
-see background information here |
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 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See Jamaica v. Barbados and other Caribb. nations that are not embargoed. Their growth depends on local policy. Other evidence as well.
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems right but I cannot think of any good reason to maintain this boycot. Hurts US biz interests and Cuban people.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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