Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
13%
5%
0%
0%
5%
48%
30%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
1%
49%
49%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Cuba is stuck in the 1950s primarily due to its internal policies not external constraints.
|
||||
 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Of course, lost tourism opportnties, etc. might also be important. Parsing it out an empirical question.
|
||||
 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Sanctions are not perfectly binding, and other countries subject to U.S.sanctions have continued to grow.
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Seems likely, but I know nothing concrete about the Cuban economy.
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The embargo is also likely to have been an important factor, and may be partly responsible for sustaining Cuba's internal economic policies.
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Trade certainly matters for growth. Many countries though would trade with Cuba, so probably its own policies were more important.
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Cuba's economic policies were flawed, but cutting off a small country from the rest of the world has detrimental effects on its growth.
|
||||
 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
communist dictatorship not exactly a growth strategy. I bet that stated growth rate even overstates reality
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
That is, with free-market policies and honest competent government, a Caribbean country could prosper without US trade or tourists.
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If Cuba allocated labor & capital to the most productive uses, growth would be higher. The US is too small as % of world trade to prevent it
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Gravity model suggests adverse effects from the embargo, but destroying the price system and using command and control instead hurts more.
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The embargo was mitigated by Cuban trade with other countries (trade diversion).
-see background information here |
||||
 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
See Jamaica v. Barbados and other Caribb. nations that are not embargoed. Their growth depends on local policy. Other evidence as well.
|
||||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Seems right but I cannot think of any good reason to maintain this boycot. Hurts US biz interests and Cuban people.
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
