Question A:
Central banks' international reserves portfolios would have substantially lower risk if they were to hold a substantial portion of their reserves in crypto assets.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
13%
0%
56%
23%
8%
0%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
74%
18%
8%
0%
0%
Question B:
The US economy would benefit substantially by borrowing money to form a strategic crypto asset reserve fund.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
13%
0%
56%
21%
8%
0%
3%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
74%
18%
4%
0%
4%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Crypto is an extremely volatile asset class and there is no evidence that crypto hedges other financial risks.
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 John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It all depends... US EU CB hold few foreign assets, so you must be talking about small countries. Well-backed dollar stable coins could be sanction-proof dollars, not a terrible idea. Unbacked bitcoin, dogecoin, fartcoin, trump coin would be a terrible idea.
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 Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Central bank reserves portfolios are dominated by safe bonds denominated in dollars and similarly stable liquid securities. Other than some stablecoins and tokenized safe bonds, which are not under consideration for this purpose, crypto assets are substantially more risky.
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 Janice Eberly |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cryptoassets have volatilities in the range of 60-100% annualized - the stock market is about 15%. It is hard to imagine that substantial holdings would reduce risk. Of course, volatility is not a complete description of risk. Cryptoassets may reduce other types of risk.
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 Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ralph Koijen |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You're kidding right? Have you computed the volatility of bitcoin lately??
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 Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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adding a small amount would likely reduce risk (as the correlation with other assets in the reserves portfolio is likely low) but adding substantial amount would raise risk, given the high volatility of crypto currencies (other than stablecoins)
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 Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Crypto pays no interest, has little practical use beyond speculation, has a price that is very volatile, and has little liquidity and market depth, making it a poor reserve asset along nearly every dimension.
-see background information here |
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 Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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crypto assets are inherently worthless. Central Banks should stay far away.
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 Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, pretty vague. If US borrows to invest in a treasury backed dollar stablecoin, what's the point? Borrowing more to "invest" in bitcoin is about the worst idea I've heard. And it will end up in Trump coin or similar. Supply of unbacked money is elastic.
NOTE: Respondent meant to answer "Strongly Disagree" to this question.
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Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Adding to the national debt is costly. I don't see a sufficiently offsetting benefit to stockpiling crypto assets, which have limited strategic or real-economy applications.
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Janice Eberly |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would oppose this even the word "crypto" was omitted. The US not in a position with $34t of debt to borrow more for some SWF. That said, the US might consider holding rather than selling all the seized crypto, e.g., Bitfinex, Silk Road, etc. This does not involve borrowing.
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See the great parody by Owen Lamont, priceless
-see background information here |
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Ralph Koijen |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This can't possibly be a serious question.
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would strike me as one of the worst policy ideas ever.
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Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is no reason why economic benefits should be generated if the government were to, effectively, run a crypto hedge fund
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The United States has a debt of over 100% of GDP. If it has extra money to invest, it should buy Treasury debt and reduce our national debt, not invest is a non-interest bearing, costly to transfer, public ledger entries.
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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