Question A:

High volatility in the prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum largely reflects movements in investor sentiment rather than news about potential sources of fundamental value (such as possible applications, or use in illicit transactions).

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Given existing regulation of the financial system, as crypto assets grow in value and become more connected to the rest of the system, the fluctuations in their valuations will pose a serious risk to financial stability in advanced economies.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

Private unbacked crypto assets serve no important economic purpose.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
I don't think there is widely accepted evidence on this yet.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bandiera
Oriana Bandiera
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Who can be sure - crypto trading and ownership is deliberately opaque
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
with the modulo that the perception of the future regulatory landscape also influences price movements
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Sentiment is more of a stationary variable, which is unlikely to produce price swings regularly.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Clearly speculation drives much of the vola, but also evidence that hashrate, network size or more trad pricing factors matter.
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The 'fundamentals' - even the price of oil - don't show volatility anywhere near that of Bitcoin et al.
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is true for stocks as well (Campbell-Shiller). Even more so for something as flimsy as crypto
-see background information here
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
"Largely" is important.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I think it depends on who holds then and in what quantities.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
But maybe in that scenario the price fluctuations of dominant currencies will be less pronounced?
Bandiera
Oriana Bandiera
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Not sure their value will ever rise to be materially important at the systemic level
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
"Serious" may be overstating, but bringing them inside the regulatory perimeter clearly desirable -- also on consumer protection grounds.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
There is a rising risk of contagion into the regulated banking sector if crypto assets become part of the asset universe held by banks.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Agree they *could* pose a risk but currently risk is still small. Use of crypto could pose challenges to local currency monetary policy.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Perhaps one day, but today we are still very far from such situation. Moreover, regulation is already happening, at least in Europe.
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
There is no macropru regulation covering crypto assets and DeFi. Crypto derivatives already $3trn notional and growing very fast. Etc.
-see background information here
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Volatility in asset prices may cause instability if associated with leverage. Not the case for crypto now (and hope it'll not become so)
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
They pose a risk but not (yet) a serious risk.
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
We don't know they will grow in value. Provided exposure of the banking sector is limited, there may not be financial stability issues.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
It is difficult for me to understand why there is no regulation on these inherently risky products.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
They are useful for illegal transactions. In mots cases these are undesirable but in some not, e.g. taking money out of repressive countries
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bandiera
Oriana Bandiera
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
They are useful for illegal activity. That is privately useful even if it is publicly damaging.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Ilegal transactions, lower transaction costs. All these are nonnegligible, but cannot explain volatility
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
There might be some future added-value applications conveying social benefits
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
If "important" means 'factual' rather than 'desired', then the answer is yes; it includes betting, informal markets, crime, laundering.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Currently they are mainly a new technology, but they could eventually serve a purpose (e.g., be embedded in a digital platform ecosystem)
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
These are purely speculative instruments that do not in any useful way fulfill the functions of money nor have any relation to real economy.
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Assets can be combined in so many ways to shift risk.
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Certainly no beneficial economic purpose.
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
very useful - for extortion and other illegal activities. Incomprehensible that cash is criminalized and crypto allowed
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Private crypto currencies are a solution in search of a problem. They serve no constructive economic purpose.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
That is if you do not qualify crime, mafia and tax evasion as economic activities.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History