Question A:
Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
2%
0%
7%
32%
43%
9%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
9%
26%
47%
18%
Question B:
A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
5%
0%
2%
39%
43%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
3%
32%
58%
7%
Question C:
Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
2%
0%
2%
11%
52%
25%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
1%
6%
53%
40%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Low income countries lack public health and fiscal resources to contain fallout from the epidemic and state capacity to coordinate action.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Inequality will increase even more for sure
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would have said absolutely two weeks ago. But virus spread has been much less than expected in low & mid-income countries -- good news!
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No one knows. Anything could happen.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The question does not control for correlation between hemispheric location (thus, perhaps exposure to C-19), and per-capita income.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Less fiscal space, more foreign-currency debt constraining monetary policy, larger external shock, weaker public health systems.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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High income countries are older & more dominated by services (hit especially hard in lockdowns) so as bad as it is in EMs, likely not worse
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maybe lower-income countries could benefit from the mistakes of the high-income ones.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not obvious so far, but testing and reporting are not comparable across countries or time.
-see background information here |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Many have younger populations, which helps, but weaker health systems and social safety net leaves them vulnerable.
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||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lower-income countries have fewer resources available for mitigation and less slack to absorb the shock of the virus.
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||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In relative if not absolute terms.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It seems likely that mortality will be higher in low- and middle-income countries. Economic damage will come indirectly via rich countries
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Although this outcome seems plausible, so far it is rich countries that have been hit the hardest, though within country the poor get hit.
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||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm very unsure, because I don't understand the cross-country variation we are seeing so far in apparent prevalence and mortality.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The lasting the developed world needs is the disease to spread uncontrollably in parts of the world.
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||||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Messy defaults benefit neither borrowers nor creditors
|
||||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The spill-back effect of forbearance to advanced economies is too hard for me to analyze in the context of this crisis.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What happens in the low- and middle-income world won't stay in the low- and middle-income world.
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||||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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second wave will affect everyone if there is not a global response
|
||||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Some debt will be uncollectable, and temporary forgiveness may lead to a healthier world economy and increased debt long-run collection.
|
||||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Chains of asset and liabilities are complex; better if advanced countries help LMI countries in which covid has large negative impact.
|
||||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Hard to have much confidence in this, given the variation in the quality of governance.
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||||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The chaos of a debt crisis on top of this epidemic would be extremely costly. Uncertainty comes from not knowing just how bad it would be.
|
||||
Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Almost all countries are interdependent in this domain -- esp. when it comes to eventual vaccine and/or treatment distribution
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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|
||||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Cannot tell without knowing more about the spatial distribution of the virus
|
||||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
"all" (worse for 100% of countries) seems improbable. But the selfishness of such policies is in any case abhorrent and counterproductive.
|
||||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
question is catnip for economists to agree but combo of "all" countries & potential heterogeneity w/in county makes it uncertain to me
|
||||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Whatever the motivation for such restrictions, their effects will be magnified by the pandemic.
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Since peaks are asynchronous, countries would benefit from sharing resources such as ventilators.
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is especially true for medical treatments and vaccines.
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This one, I think, we can all agree on.
|
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