Question A:

Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
if what is happening in Italy happens broadly it will be major recession
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Recession seems likely because of the drastic and accelerating fall in regular consumer and business activity
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
We see initial signs of a recession in debt and equity pricing, and in fiscal and monetary policy responses.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Confident that "uncertain" is correct. Depends on what you mean by "major". Depends also on the policy response, weather, hand washing etc.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
depends critically on how long the peak transmission period lasts
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Expressing an opinion would conflict with my duties chairing the NBER biz cycle chronology committee
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
If it is like ordinary flu, then economy should quickly recover. COVID-19 only threatens old and feeble economic expansions.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
a sharp slowdown is likely, whether it will be persistent enough to rise to the level of a recession is not clear yet: see nber definition
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Sadly, the loss in welfare will exceed the decline in economic activity, given mortality and morbidity.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Some sort of recession seems inevitable---indeed, it may already have begun. Forecasting its magnitude is harder
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
The COVID-19 wreaks more havoc through panic and disruption than death. To avoid recession, we could view COVID-19 as we do the flu.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
"Major" might be a bit too strong, but the precautionary measures being taken in many countries will have a significant disruptive effect.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Likely to cause a recession. Major recession is less clear, since it could be brief.
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
But it could be *much* worse
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
...but an unusual recession, driven by the interactions of epidemiology, politics, psychology and economics. Needs a more creative response.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
hard too know which us bigger this is a new situation we dont have a clue
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Supply chains are mostly about goods production, but manufacturing <20% of GDP. Services are a larger share of GDP & may be more exposed
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
For me, this is just too hard to disentangle.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
As someone who's estimated lots of models designed to distinguish supply and demand shocks, good luck identifying them.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Especially in rich countries where services dominate the economy, social distancing and withdrawal from will be the toughest part
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
I'm certain that the answer is totally uncertain.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Demand will fall only if COVID-19 is more serious than it appears to be.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
lots of industries have a collapse in demand and their workers will see incomes shrink
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
It partly depends on how much uncertainty depresses consumption.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Again, panic is the key danger from COVID-19, leading to demand disruption more serous than that encountered on the supply side.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Too early to call, I think. Workforce disruptions will affect demand as well as supply.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Supply chain disruptions look to be short-lived. Income loss for hourly workers and those in travel, entertainment, etc will matter more
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
The demand effects might be large. But the most important impacts will happen on the supply side, I think, and that's where we should focus.