China’s Growth

In the long run. But the long run can be very long...

True because it's already happened! Growth is down. Consumption is up.

I'm not a fan of the "s word" (sustainable). The structure of China's economy will have to change over time, no question. But sustainable?

must we relearn the same lesson in the same painful way again?

China's TREMENDOUS gains in living standards last 25 yrs is 1 of most impt events in history likely unsustainable but long run comes slowly

"If it can't go on forever, it won't"

As China becomes richer it will resemble other rich countries: growth rates will fall;wages and consumption will rise;investment will fall.

Of course, it is unsustainable in the very long run, but near-to-mid term sustainability is at least plausible.

Like 20th century Japan, Germany, etc., they are catching up with other economies and will slow down as they approach US/EU productivity.

They've talked about rotating demand forever, looks like the markets have lost faith and are worried about bridges to nowhere, etc.

They won't get as much growth from capital-deepening (rising capital-labor ratio) in the future as in recent decades.
-see background information here
-see background information here

China's growth numbers have long been suspect; it is remarkable that new evidence of their weakness has so much effect on world markets.

However countries that grow very rapidly eventually hit a wall. Successful ones (e.g. Korea) return to growth after the stop.

Internal politics matters here and it is hard to be confident about future developments.

In the long run, growth has to slow as the process of structural change approaches completion. Consumption eventually converges near income.