Question A:
Trade with China makes most Europeans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
19%
0%
0%
0%
2%
40%
40%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
1%
45%
54%
Question B:
Some Europeans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
19%
0%
0%
0%
13%
56%
13%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
12%
70%
18%
Question C:
If the EU followed the new US steel tariffs by imposing similar EU tariffs on steel from China, it would improve Europeans’ welfare.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
19%
0%
35%
40%
6%
0%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
52%
41%
6%
0%
0%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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By and large, I agree with free trade. The question is well phrased to avoid some of the downsides of free trade.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People as consumers win. People as workers may lose.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it is true that consumers can buy cheaper manufacturing goods and accordingly benefit from imports from China
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trade with China, as with other countries, is of a reciprocal nature, and it helps Europeans (and Chinese) in consumption and employment.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key is in the word most. Need to recognize the distributional impacts of trade. There are gainers and losers even if on average we gain
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gains from trade on average is one of the most widely accepted predictions of economic theory, stemming from specialisation and wider choice
-see background information here |
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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On top of the benefits mentioned in the question, we benefit from cheaper goods from Europe due to cheaper intermediate inputs from China.
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It also benefits European luxury goods maker, whose biggest market today is China
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Consumers benefit from cheaper goods. But environmental costs of trade are not priced; some workers and producers are worse off
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chinese trade has also simulated productivity growth and innovation in Europe - see link
-see background information here |
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No brainer
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the short run this is often true. In the medium and long term, it's more difficult to say. Retraining is not that successful so far.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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indeed, some workers will lose their jobs. Some will find better ones, some will have a tougher time.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is obviuosly also true. Displaced workers and workers in Western Europe who lost their jobs due to relocatiion will be worse off
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This statement is in a way a no-brainer. But it begs the question whether it does not also help affected European producers to find a niche.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As with any change to an economy's structure, it is inevitable that some groups will suffer. Such gains can be offset by a social safety net
-see background information here |
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They are made better off if they move to new jobs. An economy has to evolve for everyone's benefit
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Recent research papers have documented negative effect of Chinese imports on labour market (in line with trade theory) and on health.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wider long-term gains from trade may offset short-run losses for workers in such sectors.
-see background information here |
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is natural, and this is why one needs social policies, retraining programs, fluid labor markets etc. But there are many new jobs too...
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Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Contrary to what President Trump said, outcomes of trade wars are difficult to predict but are probably not good for anybody.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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(1) China retaliation and inevitable escalation
(2) destroying rule based-trade, where disputes are settled by WTO norms and "courts"
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Full implications obviously wider than the direct impact of tariff shifting demand curve. Would impact EU's position in a tariff war.
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not believe in strategic trade policy as an instrument of welfare improvement: European and Chinese welfare are not substitutes.
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||||
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It might trigger further tariff increased.
|
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Small group might benefit from tariffs, but most are hurt. Overall costs outweigh benefits considering how widely steel is used in economy.
|
||||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Policy effects in multilateral contexts are hard to predict, but for both economic and political reasons such tariffs would entail self-harm
|
||||
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Such tariffs would escalate the risks of a full-blown tripartite trade war to the detriment of everybody.
|
||||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Europe has no comparative advantage in steel production. Let it go to China and let Europe produce more hi-tech goods
|
||||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Trade wars are not conducive to higher welfare.
|
||||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
China would retaliate. It would worsen the trend toward global protectionism.
|
||||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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