Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is hearsay because I don't "do" monetary policy. But everything I've read says that Ben was extraordinarily creative and effective.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
He had to find creative ways to get around a number of institutional constraints to do the needful and he did
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
The ultimate judgement will depend on the exit strategy and how easily the fed will return to a more rule-based policy.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't like the "informed postmortems" part. There is little agreement in macro.
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Strong action as a lender of last resort was essential. This is what central banks do. In this instance, innovation by the Fed was crucial.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Future views of the past are hard to predict with precision. That said, things would probably have been much worse without the Feds actions
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Fed could have been even more aggressive. Could have recognized problems in shadow banking system earlier. But hindsight is 20/20.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Let's see how the unwinding works. Also, some of the policies had bad income-distribution consequences and some were fiscal policies.
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
No Ben, no avoiding depression. Full stop.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
The counterfactual state of the world with muted, Fed responses is an ugly one.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Generally true. Some doubts about whether it would have been possible to impose haircuts on debtholders rather than use public funds.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
A policy where the Fed let financial institutions go bankrupt or helped home-owners directly might have been better, but we will never know
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
In retrospect, some responses seem prescient, others misguided or based on false premises. Phil Swagel's paper is a great read on this.
-see background information here |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
It is hard to have confidence on this opinion. It is difficult to predict how history will play out; this is not just "economic" predictions
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
The financial crisis was a solvency crisis. The Bernanke (and Paulson) actions were instrumental in keeping the financial sector solvent.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Public may not appreciate this, but Bernanke's Fed helped stave off Depression 2.0. Record before and after will be more controversial.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
We'll never know the counterfactual, but there is reason to believe that Ben Bernanke helped avert disaster, despite an ineffective Congress
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Important not to forget how dire the situation was at that time.
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
More subjective than most questions. Likely that economists will disagree about this in the future. But I judge Bernanke's actions favorably
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Bernanke understood very well the policy errors of the Fed during the Great Depression and had the courage to avoid repeating them.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Hard to predict what hindsight will suggest, but it think he did well in extremely difficult times.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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