Britain’s Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As far as I know, there's not much evidence that central bank policies are very effective in affecting productivity.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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why not ask for 10% productivity growth? (one footnote: hysteresis, if present, implies a slightly more aggressive monetary policy)
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Recent studies have suggested a link between monetary conditions and productivity growth. However this is still much discussed.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even over a ten-year horizon, maintaining macroeconomic stability and avoiding slumps in investment can probably affect productivity.
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the long term the monetary policy is neutral
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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And it is doubtful the reducing macro stability further in the UK would attain any significant gains in terms of productivity growth.
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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i am one of those who believe that with printing money you cannot by persistent growth
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Quite an absurd suggestion, vastly overestimating what monetary policy can achieve - in the end frustrating central bankers and the public.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I know of no result in the literature suggesting monetary policy would be able to affect technology growth.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Traditional CB tools don't directly affect productivity. Indirect effects via demand conceivable, but not clear how large&persistent.
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This target is hard to influence with any instrument; monetary policy is not the right one
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Just like drinking coffee cannot make you more productive in the long run.
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Productivity growth depends on technology, infrastructure and the like. Monetary policy has nothing to do with it
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Productivity is micro, monetary policy and macropru are macro.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What a crazy idea!
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Financial stability -- e.g. more bank equity capital -- helps investment incentives and productivity (but maybe is part of macro stability)
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's clear that bad policy can screw up things; but long-run productivity growth is not under the thumb of central bankers...
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even over a decade, macroeconomic stability and preventing investment slumps can probably have a positive influence on productivity.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Myriads of attempts to use central banks to boost growth have ended up in failure. Why can't people learn from the past?
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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