US

Central Banking and Climate Change

Question A:

Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
From every angle climate change risk is huge. Not a minor factor. Unclear how it will affect monetary policy, but unlikely not to impact it
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Climate scientists are writing that the main impacts, although huge, occur after 10 years. Monetary policy works on a shorter time scale.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Almost any claim saying "at most" is literally wrong. A lot can happen in a decade and has in the last decade. Time will tell, sadly.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
May have large effects from (relatively rare) time to time.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
True for US monetary policy. The main big outside event that might create such a serious problem for monetary policy is a flu epidemic
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Monetary policy tends to address issues that have a much shorter time-frame than climate change could possibly have.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Monetary policy is based on data that is aggregated over space and time. Weather events will have very small impact on that data.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Ten years is a short time frame for climate change but not implausible that an extreme weather event would affect the macroeconomy.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Eventually climate change will have a big effect on the economy, but it's hard to say whether that will happen within a decade
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
It seems unlikely, but possible that climate-related costs may become so large as to affect the aggregate economy and hence monetary policy.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Climate change and regulatory responses are likely to cause significant supply shocks but the effect on monetary policy is not obvious.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is from the perspective of the US and Europe. Little aggregate risk is attributable to climate or weather.
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
"will" != "should". Need lots of financial innovation esp in poor countries to signal likely changes and deal with increasing shocks.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Tail risks from climate can certainly impact US and global economic stability, and hence financial stability.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Not over the next decade, but within 2 or 3 decades.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
NOT in the U.S., but in poor, low-lying countries
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The huge impacts are said to be farther out in time. They are unlikely to destabilize the financial system, specifically, within 10 years.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Immediate threats include big fires and extreme weather events. Threats to global financial stability are probably farther in the future.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Dodd-Frank gave us the tools to achieve financial stability,so, if we use them, we are not at risk from climate change or other disturbances
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
I am confident being uncertain (and so should others be) about the answer to this question. Expressing certainty would be mere evangelism.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
If financial stability is threatened by more bad weather, then we are in deep trouble when it comes to handling the explosion in debt.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
The transition risks from policies that change the price of carbon are VERY different matter and those could create lots of stranded assets
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Again, ten years seems short but it is conceivable that an extreme weather event would disrupt the macroeconomy and/or financial system
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Physical risks likely to be small relative to other risks. Possible exception in insurance industry.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
A threat to financial stability seems unlikely, but certainly not impossible.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Threat smaller if regulatory authorities force financial institutions to fully account for climate risk in their risk-management.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Possible, yes; likely, no.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Potential risks emanate from property insurance
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History