Question A:
The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').
For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It depends on the implementation but CBDCs have the potential to provide a safe have during times of uncertainty.
-see background information here |
||||
 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Risk of disintermediation of the banking sector, difficult to avoid
|
||||
 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I would be more positive for a wholesale CBDC
|
||||
 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Central banks must ensure that payments technology is secure and low cost; this may not require them to provide retail services directly.
-see background information here |
||||
 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Critical issues: what role for digital currencies in competition with crypto currencies, what is impact on banking industry?
|
||||
 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
At this point we don't know. See all the CB research papers. Much hinges on design of CBDC and specific features of banking/payment system.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
||||
 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Agree, as long as measures are introduced to reduce the risk of bank runs, which increases under the CBDC.
|
||||
 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It would depend the structure. Desintermediatrion of the banks or not? etc.
|
||||
 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Reducing transaction costs for payments would be good, but these benefits could be offset by an increase in illegal activity.
|
||||
 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The recent listing of Coinbase with a value greater than the one of the NYSE or Nasdaq shows that cryptocurrencies may start being important
-see background information here |
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Presumably they can use regulation (targeted to private companies offering digital currency) to keep control over monetary policy
|
||||
|
Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I have never understood this argument. Either private currencies float, or they sell at par. Neither case makes m policy irrelevant.
|
||||
|
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Prudential and conduct regulation of private providers would suffice.
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The answer depends on whether or not digitalization of a currency is a necessary condition to maintain the role of government-backed monies.
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not if central banks retain oversight and regulate any private sector DC in the way they regulate banks.
|
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Central banks without CBDCs lose the ability to make interest rates deeply negative, but monetary policy can be effective without it.
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Ability to avoid currency substitution depends to some degree on international regulatory cooperation, which is uncertain.
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
it depends strongly on how countries regulate the use of privately provided stable coins and crypto currencies
|
||||
|
Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I don't see a deep difference between electronic money (current situation) and CBDC as far as the conduct of monetary policy is concerned.
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I think they have the potential to reshape the financial system and hence have a significant effect on the economy.
-see background information here |
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I certainly see some potential benefits. That's not inconsistent with current valuations of private digital currencies looking like a bubble
|
||||
|
Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I may miss the vision thing. It may improve plumbing. But to me, it seems like much ado about not much.
|
||||
|
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
As before, it will have an effect if it turns the table in the competition between state and private (crypto) monies.
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Some analyses support statement others say exact opposite. Could affect bank competition, depositor behavior, transmission, but by how much?
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
depends how its is structured
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If regulated poorly it can lead to big instability in the financial system. if regulated well it will not make a big impact on productivity
|
||||
|
Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Efficiency gains from CBDC could have big effects on bank business models, further strengthening the case for them to be better-capitalised.
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
