US

Central Bank Digital Currency

Question A:

The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').’

For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Depends on how monetary institutions evolve & I worry about end of privacy: gov't having too much information about individual transactions
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
A lot depends on the specific design of the currency and its rules. Would it be as anonymous as commercial offerings, for example?
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
The benefits of CBDC are large relative to the current bank-railed payment system, but bank-railed payments could be improved a lot.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Unclear whether the central bank would design a safe low transaction cost digital currency. Irs system to pay taxes does not impress
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Benefits are mainly financial inclusion. Risks are cyber-security related. Balance of risks and benefits is uncertain. Proceed w/ caution
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Not clear a central bank can efficiently run a retail payments system for an entire country. Maybe just for intermediaries?
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
In units of the national currency and freely exchangeable at parity or as a separate entity?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
It would replace inefficient credit cards, paper currency, and bank transfers
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
CBs will have to issue digital currencies of some kind. With the right kind, the effects will be beneficial.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Improving electronic tech is also possible without creating Big Brother.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Can everyone run into this currency during stress and dis-intermediate the rest of the financial system? What private alternatives exist?
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Agree but a lot depends on the details, and there are many.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
One would hope that some significant transactions costs could be avoided.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Not clear how much benefits CBDC would produce over an instant payment system ran by CBs.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
One concern is that this would eventually crowd out traditional currency, with uncertain consequences
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
I don't see why the US or the UK cannot pursue standard monetary policy without digital currency.
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
it also depends on what it counts as assets of the banking system etc. One can imagine other ways to keep monetary control
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
"Digital dollarization" is a bigger threat to smaller emerging market economies and not much of a threat for large economic blocks.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Small open economies are vulnerable. Private fintech payments can disrupt large economies. Strong CBDCs can deflect invasive forms of money.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Not clear yet that private digital currencies are or will be good as money substitutes.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
The alternative private payment mechanisms/vehicles can be strictly regulated, limiting potential loss of monetary control/payments.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
The rise of digital payment systems, like previous financial innovations, will likely alter the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
All important central banks implement monetary policy through setting the interest rate on reserves.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Conventional data gathering could be substantially without potential loss of privacy.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Assuming any systemic private alternatives are well regulated, doubt this would be necessary to maintain control.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Monetary innovations appear to already have complicated monetary policy; the addition effect is difficult to assess.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Unlikely, given CB's regulatory power, though CBDC may allow for the implementation of additional monetary policy measures
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
But probably not for some time.
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Reduced transaction costs will be positive (how much? Unclear). Reduced privacy may be negative, especially combined with other surveillance
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
The answer depends on the country.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
A widely used CBDC disrupts banking, causing a big change in intermediation. That may turn out well if banking is not otherwise disrupted.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the economy. Effects in advanced countries likely to be minor, in underbanked developing economies potentially substantial.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Probably a big effect on commercial banks, among others.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
In the short run. Long run, less clear—low/no cost digital payments would change a lot of things
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
The efficiency gains would be a a tiny fraction of GDP.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
In the long run, the effects will be significant for payment systems as well as monetary policy.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Doing a better job with current system would be as good as trying digital currencies.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Certainly depends on regulating the private alternatives well.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Agree in the short-term, but hard to forecast the longer-term effects of any major technological change.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
A central bank digital currency might reduce transaction costs substantially
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
One suspects the effects would not be major, but predictions about new technologies are notoriously difficult.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History