US

Carbon Tax

A tax on the carbon content of fuels would be a less expensive way to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions than would a collection of policies such as “corporate average fuel economy” requirements for automobiles.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
See Chris Knittel's forthcoming paper in Journal of Economic Perspectives on this topic: Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Taxing the externality would be much more efficient than CAFE - but the challenge is getting the tax rate right
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
That is not to suggest that a carbon cap and trade program is necessarily worse than a tax. But CAFE worse.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
The indirect route of fleet fuel standards causes distortions in the auto industry and fails to capture other sources of C02 emissions.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Always better to be direct. So long as administration of a fuel tax is as easy as other indirect regulation it is better.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Too vague... It is not clear how this tax would be implemented.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
the one is specifically aimed at carbon so seems almost tautological. not necess true for other considerations like natl security etc
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
totally basic economics!
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
If social cost sensitive to total emissions or hard to measure, quantity controls may be better than tax.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
If the objective is to reduce GHGs then the best policy is to tax GHG emissions. CAFE standards will initially do little.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Would help equalize marginal cost across sources. Revenue can keep marginal tax rates on work, saving lower than otherwise.
-see background information here
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
This compares two ineffective approaches. The magnitude of this problem is so great that no sufficient carbon tax is feasible worldwide.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
In principle, yes. In practice, would depend a huge amount on the design of the tax vs other policies, so hard to give a blanket answer.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Many studies on this, see RfF on national energy policies, Dec 2010 as example.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I believe this to be the case in theory although in practice may be a more effective way to achieve environmental objectives.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Since a carbon tax is politically infeasible how about hiking the gas tax by a dollar and then index it. We now have a negative carbon tax.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
This is as clear as economics gets; provides incentives to find minimally costly ways to reduce emissions.
-see background information here
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History