US

California’s Drought

Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The geographic price adjustments should reflect cost differences. Distributional effects need to be addressed in the transition.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Does not have to bankrupt farmers: they can be given water rights to resell. Coase Theorem applies.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Depends on who levies the taxes, but there are obvious gains to be had.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Price-based allocation usually works, absent externalities. I'm no expert on water, so open minded to learning what the externalities are.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Subject to usual caveats: SR dislocations have costs that disipate in LR; lump sum redistribution may require compensation.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
reform shld remove restrictions on intra- & inter-state trading, clarifying property rights & investments in monitoring water withdrawals
-see background information here
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
There would be winners and losers. A better policy would engineer a roughly Pareto improving change. Bu probably better than nothing.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Equal prices imply that all final users will value the last gallon they use the same, which ensures efficiency. Consumer rationing does not.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Law of 1 price would generate enormous gains (from trade)--much more than enough to compensate family farms hurt in transition to sanity.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The marginal value of water differs greatly across uses. Change in food output will be small; farm use would not decline by much.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Basic economics would equate marginal prices for substitute users, but not at all clear if we're taking about average prices.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Moving to market-based system will be painful but particularly important given stresses to come.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
"On average" hides some serious adverse consequences for some people, but rationalizing water prices would be a great step forward.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Disclosure: I am a member of the Board of Cosan Limited which is engaged in sugar and bioethanol production in Brazil.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
There would be losers and serious adjustment costs, not all economic, so it is hard to be confident about "on average".
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The only question is what "on average" means. One water price would make most Californians better off.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
I may use this as one of the core examples for introduction to microeconomics: a simple example of misallocation and gains from trade.