Federal mandates that
government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional
circumstances,
such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
4 years ago I would have disagreed. Recent evidence (Autor Dorn Hanson) suggests yes.Caveat: costs from higher prices & other inefficiencies
-see background information here |
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The policies will boost demand for U.S. manufacturing, at least in short run. But other countries may retaliate.
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Hard to believe this does much at all. But I'm speaking based on my prior. I've not seen any rigorous analysis.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is an empirical statement, tough to evaluate thoroughly.
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
If the "buy American" clause raises the price of public works, then fewer of them will be undertaken, which will undercut the mandate.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Seems wildly unlikely that the magnitude would be significant, even without retaliatory or GE effects,
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Seems to hard disagree with the statement as posed. But that does not at all mean that this is a good idea!
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Question is too vague.
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Highly unlikely. Strict enforcement would lead to retaliation and trade wars, hurting US employment. Lax enforcement would have small effect
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The impact is quite uncertain, depends on elasticities (degree of substitutability, price differences, impact on input prices, etc.).
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
These campaigns may be able to tilt employment so that there is more manufacuting employment, but I suspect that the impact is not great.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
While it is possible to write a model in which the intended effect would occur, govt purchases are too small a share to make a model work.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It raises costs which increases taxation. No net gain to anyone in the long run.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Less than 0.1% according to one plausible calculation -- even ignoring possible retaliation (not to mention being a WTO violation).
-see background information here |
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not aware of much evidence on this, but government purchases are substantial, so expect at least some effects.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Too confusing.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't think such mandates ever have much impact. In theory they lead the dollar to appreciate, crowding out any positive effect.
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Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Given vagueness in the definition of whether a product is "American" I suspect this provision may be more symbolic than not.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
There will surely be some positive effect, but I would be surprised if it were non-trivial.
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The exception in which "buy American" makes a difference is in military production for which the government is the main market.
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
Likely increases employment in specific firms, but at relatively high cost. Effect on aggregate employment unclear to me.
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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