US

Buy American

Federal mandates that government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional circumstances, such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
4 years ago I would have disagreed. Recent evidence (Autor Dorn Hanson) suggests yes.Caveat: costs from higher prices & other inefficiencies
-see background information here
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The policies will boost demand for U.S. manufacturing, at least in short run. But other countries may retaliate.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hard to believe this does much at all. But I'm speaking based on my prior. I've not seen any rigorous analysis.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
This is an empirical statement, tough to evaluate thoroughly.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
If the "buy American" clause raises the price of public works, then fewer of them will be undertaken, which will undercut the mandate.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Seems wildly unlikely that the magnitude would be significant, even without retaliatory or GE effects,
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Seems to hard disagree with the statement as posed. But that does not at all mean that this is a good idea!
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Question is too vague.
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Highly unlikely. Strict enforcement would lead to retaliation and trade wars, hurting US employment. Lax enforcement would have small effect
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
The impact is quite uncertain, depends on elasticities (degree of substitutability, price differences, impact on input prices, etc.).
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
These campaigns may be able to tilt employment so that there is more manufacuting employment, but I suspect that the impact is not great.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
While it is possible to write a model in which the intended effect would occur, govt purchases are too small a share to make a model work.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
It raises costs which increases taxation. No net gain to anyone in the long run.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Less than 0.1% according to one plausible calculation -- even ignoring possible retaliation (not to mention being a WTO violation).
-see background information here
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Not aware of much evidence on this, but government purchases are substantial, so expect at least some effects.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Too confusing.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
I don't think such mandates ever have much impact. In theory they lead the dollar to appreciate, crowding out any positive effect.
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Given vagueness in the definition of whether a product is "American" I suspect this provision may be more symbolic than not.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
There will surely be some positive effect, but I would be surprised if it were non-trivial.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
The exception in which "buy American" makes a difference is in military production for which the government is the main market.
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Likely increases employment in specific firms, but at relatively high cost. Effect on aggregate employment unclear to me.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History