US

Brexit II

Question A:

Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Probably lower, but too much uncertainty. The UK-EU deal likely to be similar to the status quo ante, so should not have too large an effect
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
There is substantial uncertainty about the contours of the going-forward relationship with the EU.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Main factors: lost trade in goods and services, especially for London City, coupled with delayed investment due to policy uncertainty.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The outcome depends on policy, but "likely" is the operative word here.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Brexit will cause big problems but in the short run. W/reasonable uk/eu terms, long run prospects no different (though Euro still doomed)
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
distributional consequences are less clear. form of trade deals will matter a great deal.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Way too complicated to call.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
A post-Brexit agreement between U.K. and E.U. is likely to involve trade barriers. This will reduce gains from trade. The U.K. will suffer.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Pluses and minuses to vote. Minus for financial sector. Plus for innovation, experimentation and decentralization.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Voter anger trumps econ considerations, but slowdown is underway and City of London is likely to shrink necessitating higher taxes
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hard to predict GDP levels ten years out, especially given uncertainty about what Brexit actually will mean.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The European Union has various structural problems, but exiting will lead to efficiency losses and to lower per capital income in the UK.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Less access to single market, specially in financial services, and immigration restrictions outweigh gains in deregulation and transfers.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This assumes they go through with it. Hoping reason prevails.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Very uncertain, because the path forward is so unclear.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Two negative effects: greater uncertainty about the periphery's future, and absence of British lobbying for more open EU markets.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Factors: lost trade in goods and services, increased EU-existential uncertainty, and reduced UK moderating influence on policy choices.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Little long-run effect one way or the other, although there should be plenty of additional volatility in the short run.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
I assume you mean lower than had the vote gone the other way, not lower than today.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
See above. Switzerland like deal with uk will have little lasting damage. But Euro doomed either way.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
form of trade deals will matter a great deal.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Both sides gain from trade and so the EU will also suffer. The per capita loss is likely to be smaller simply because the EU is bigger.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The economic impact rest of EU is unclear since UK is less than 20% of EU. If Brexit leads to EU collapse then impact will be bad.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Minus = short-term instability. Plus = may lead to less centralization, more innovation. Eurozone as is = problematic economically.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Stability of rest of the EU much more in doubt. If anyone else leaves big transition costs for everyone. The politics around this are bad.
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Excluding migrants from capita for both cases.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The effect on the EU will be smaller than that on the UK, unless the European Union unravels further.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This is bad for the EU even if sanity is restored and especially if the Brexit process begins. Could unravel.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History