Bitcoins

Question A:

Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to currency.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to Dutch tulips in the 1630s.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Aghion
Philippe Aghion
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
At the moment Bitcoin is more of an investment than a medium of exchange and so is closer to gold. The reason is the price volatility.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Except that you cannot make nice necklaces with bitcoins.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoins are a bubble. Gold embodies a bubble but has a fundamental industrial value. Currencies are a bubbles backed by the government.
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoins, like currency, are used as a means of payment. Gold is not. Gold has a fundamental value.
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Gold has intrinsic value. Bitcoin value, like currency, depends mainly on social or political conventions.
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
A bitcoin is a private bet on becoming a (public) legal tender, and on earning the seignorage.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
It has no intrinsic value: like currency. Its liquidity: unclear, but similar w many currencies. It is a medium of exchange for criminals.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoin is neither close to gold nor to a currency. Studies show that its asset prices so far do not behave like gold or other currencies.
-see background information here
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoins have feature of currency, though volatility makes them undesirable except for speculation. Blockchain technology more important
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Like gold, bitcoin has stable supply, unstable purchasing power, and no central bank to back it up
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
They are not currency: no central bank involved and not used in every day transactions. Not exactly like gold: gold has other uses
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoins not an accepted means of exchange, nor unit of account, nor stable store of value. So not money.
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoins are not commodity money (like gold) but rather fiat money (without the backing of a sovereign).
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoins lack characteristics of fiat money (legal tender, trust in issuing state, good store of value, good medium of exchange)
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoins are almost useless as currency... but like gold, in limited supply.
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The bitcoin supply is asymptotically fixed , as opposed to fiat money.
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
On the relative similarity I agree but gold has actual uses (e.g. jewellery) which gives it some value. Bitcoin will likely end up worthless
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoins are a parallel currency, with no intrinsic value, very different from gold. But the supply is limited, like gold.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Aghion
Philippe Aghion
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I think Bitcoin is not necessarily a bubble since it does have uses, eg, transferring value from Venezuela to the US.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Like bitcoin, the two assets have some intrinsic value. Much of their price however reflects a bubble. A draw
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
This feels like a classic bubble - my guess is 10 years from now they will be valueless.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Both gold and tulips are bubbles. Gold has a larger intrinsic value plus a long history as a safe haven asset.
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Currencies are backed by tax collection.
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Like the price of Dutch tulips in the 1630s, bitcoins' price seems to have a large bubble component. Gold's is likely smaller.
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoin has a payments function unlike those tulip bulbs
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Again, tulips had developed into a mutually accepted expression of value, and bulbs were seen as the key (algorithm) to replication/mining.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Gold is also a medium of exchange though not a very liquid one.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Investors might be speculating on bitcoins being used in some future application, but there are many competitors or alternatives.
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
If I knew the answer I would take a position on them!
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Little similarity to tulips besides the recent bubble-like price pattern
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Tulips, from what I know, have very little other uses
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoins are bubble like tulips. And not even pretty to look at. Gold not bubble (and is rather pretty).
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Dutch tulips can hardly serve as commodity money.
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Gold has some durable intrinsic value (jewels). Bitcoins have none.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Tulips are highly differentiated goods; bitcoin are not. But both bitcoin and tulips have no business being very valuable...
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fantasy plays a large part in the pricing of bitcoin.
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The tulips thing was a long time ago and there are various disagreements about it. But yes Bitcoin is more pure speculation than even gold.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Tulips were subject to a bubble, which also applies to bitcoins, and occasionally to gold.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History