US

Bitcoin II

Question A:

A bitcoin has a fundamental value of at least $1,000.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The best forecast for the value of one bitcoin in 2 years is its current price.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Money is by definition a bubble since it derives its value from resale option. Bitcoin serves more a speculative role than one 3 classic ro
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
For many reasons, the market price does not reflect fundamental Bitcoin value, which in any case is mainly related to avoiding detection.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
‘Fundamental’?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Conceptually, the fundamental value is the present value of its transaction services. Depends on competition in the private currency mkt
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I don't understand bitcoin. Economic theory tells us that it should be worthless but it is not. I still think it's a bubble that will burst.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
I don't see any "fundamental" value. It is like paper money where the value is determined by some social consensus.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
many ways to compute fundamental value (eg total black market spend/ # of bit coin), but an AML crackdown could also crush the value
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoin has a fundamental value of $0
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoin may be the focal “reserve currency” for illegal transactions and money laundering. Perhaps price will end up much higher.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Unlike assets such as stocks that are backed by substantive economic activity, I see no way to define a "fundamental value" for bitcoin.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The fundamental value of bitcoin is zero. Prices wholly dependent on forecasts of what others would be willing to pay in the future.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoin has no fundamental value. It's value comes from the belief that it has value.
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
I know of no reliable way to calculate its fundamental value
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
This market is too new and too thin to know how to judge.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
But there is infinite variance around this forecast
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Extrapolative expectations and speculation play an important role in determining the price. Also, it is not easy to short underlying bitcoin
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
This market is so speculative and inefficient that the current price is only weakly related to the expected price in 2 years.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Or zero
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
jlots of speculation about fundamental use value built into the price currently, which makes predictions very difficult
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The price of a security is not a random walk--it is derived from its dividend (transaction services) and the asset-pricing kernel.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I don't understand bitcoin. Economic theory tells us that it should be worthless but it is not. I still think it's a bubble that will burst.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Significant deviations from that prediction would imply that current holders are ignoring arbitrage opportunities.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoin will be valuable, but will be worth less than $17,000 in two years.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
no clear intrinsic value and lots of risk that regulators move to limit its value, but that does not guarantee a crash
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin collapsed within 2 years
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
How could it be other?
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
But the current value is such a noisy forecast as to be of virtually no use.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Shorting is more costly than going long - prices reflect more the optimists' views. BTC prices could suffer from incr. supply of other CCs.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
This is the textbook answer, but I'm not confident that it is correct here.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
My understanding is that shorting bitcoin is difficult so standard eff mkt theory might not apply
-see background information here
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
The price seems stupidly high but could go up!
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
If only I understood the psychology of people's expectations about each other's future beliefs about bitcoin... Sadly, I don't. Does anyone?