Question A:
A bitcoin has a fundamental value of at least $1,000.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The best forecast for the value of one bitcoin in 2 years is its current price.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Money is by definition a bubble since it derives its value from resale option. Bitcoin serves more a speculative role than one 3 classic ro
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
For many reasons, the market price does not reflect fundamental Bitcoin value, which in any case is mainly related to avoiding detection.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
‘Fundamental’?
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Conceptually, the fundamental value is the present value of its transaction services. Depends on competition in the private currency mkt
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't understand bitcoin. Economic theory tells us that it should be worthless but it is not. I still think it's a bubble that will burst.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't see any "fundamental" value. It is like paper money where the value is determined by some social consensus.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
many ways to compute fundamental value (eg total black market spend/ # of bit coin), but an AML crackdown could also crush the value
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Bitcoin has a fundamental value of $0
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Bitcoin may be the focal “reserve currency” for illegal transactions and money laundering. Perhaps price will end up much higher.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Unlike assets such as stocks that are backed by substantive economic activity, I see no way to define a "fundamental value" for bitcoin.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
The fundamental value of bitcoin is zero. Prices wholly dependent on forecasts of what others would be willing to pay in the future.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Bitcoin has no fundamental value. It's value comes from the belief that it has value.
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I know of no reliable way to calculate its fundamental value
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
This market is too new and too thin to know how to judge.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
But there is infinite variance around this forecast
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Extrapolative expectations and speculation play an important role in determining the price. Also, it is not easy to short underlying bitcoin
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
This market is so speculative and inefficient that the current price is only weakly related to the expected price in 2 years.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Or zero
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
jlots of speculation about fundamental use value built into the price currently, which makes predictions very difficult
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The price of a security is not a random walk--it is derived from its dividend (transaction services) and the asset-pricing kernel.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't understand bitcoin. Economic theory tells us that it should be worthless but it is not. I still think it's a bubble that will burst.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Significant deviations from that prediction would imply that current holders are ignoring arbitrage opportunities.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Bitcoin will be valuable, but will be worth less than $17,000 in two years.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
no clear intrinsic value and lots of risk that regulators move to limit its value, but that does not guarantee a crash
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin collapsed within 2 years
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
How could it be other?
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
But the current value is such a noisy forecast as to be of virtually no use.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Shorting is more costly than going long - prices reflect more the optimists' views. BTC prices could suffer from incr. supply of other CCs.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is the textbook answer, but I'm not confident that it is correct here.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
My understanding is that shorting bitcoin is difficult so standard eff mkt theory might not apply
-see background information here |
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
The price seems stupidly high but could go up!
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
If only I understood the psychology of people's expectations about each other's future beliefs about bitcoin... Sadly, I don't. Does anyone?
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