On 10 January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products:
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\
The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products makes investors overall measurably better off.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
SEC-approved ETP's are likely a safer way for investors to trade Bitcoin than some previous arrangements, but if they encourage some investors to trade Bitcoin who would not otherwise have done so, these ETPs may harm those investors.
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It's not the SEC's job to stop people from making what it thinks are bad investments. I don't think investors as a whole are better off holding bitcoin, but I've been wrong before and so has the SEC. "Investors better off" is not the question for regulation!
-see background information here |
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Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The SEC correctly acted as mandated, providing access to products meeting given legal requirements. Beyond that, SEC is not there to judge welfare (See Gary Gensler's comments.) Welfare is not improved by wider speculation in a zero-sum risky asset like Bitcoin.
-see background information here |
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Janice Eberly |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Unless it becomes a widely used medium of exchange, bitcoin should eventually implode. The alternative is that all I learned from monetary theory about how currencies acquire value is meaningless.
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
It might have been measurable if the SEC had approved the first ETF application in 2013 when BTC was at $90. Now, after 10+ years of stonewalling BTC=$44,000. The SEC failed the very investors that it was charged to protect in the 1933. DeFi is promising. Look for ETH ETF next.
-see background information here |
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David Hirshleifer |
USC | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Bio/Vote History | ||
Probably won't have much an effect on overall crypto market since there are a number of ways to already gain exposure to the asset class.
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Given the initial demand, have to believe that investors believe they are better off. Revealed preference. And it is measurable.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
it is dangerous to argue that the government knows better and should protect people from having the choice to invest easily in bitcoin. but at some point I expect this to end in tears and would rather not have regular investors owning this stuff
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Ralph Koijen |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
It may lower the cost and can broaden access, which may be a good thing for those who'd like exposure to Bitcoin. However, there already are ETFs on futures and, as long as the spot-futures basis is not too extreme, I am unsure the spot ETFs provide a measurable benefit.
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
First, it reduces transactions costs, which is a positive for investors who would have purchased bitcoin anyway. However, it will likely cause more investors to purchase bitcoin, which may be negative given the lack of connection to a real asset, unclear value proposition, etc
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
Giving investors access to a new asset will increase the opportunity set, but the effect is likely to be small.
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Investors get a non-interest bearing asset without getting any of the purported licit and illicit transaction benefits of bitcoin(That said, it is not the SEC's job to prevent investors from making bad investments. What the SEC should or should not do is a different question).
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
Unclear whether the benefits for some investors who would otherwise be investing on unregulated exchanges & crypto scams outweighs the costs to investors drawn into investing in non-interest bearing money with unstable value.
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
Consumer will now have access to BTC through a regulated exchange. This should reduce intermediation fees.
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paola Sapienza |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
More confusion (and false certification) for consumers
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Better off from the perspective of the those trading them? Of course. Better off from the perspective of a social planner? Unclear.
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amir Sufi |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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