US

Bitcoin

A bitcoin's value derives solely from the belief that others will want to use it for trade, which implies that its purchasing power is likely to fluctuate over time to a degree that will limit its usefulness.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Unlike government issued fiat money, there is no guarantee it can be used to pay taxes or settle other obligations.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bitcoin usefulness is limited mainly by other factors. Currencies can be useful for trade in large part because they are accepted for trade.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
It is likely to fluctuate in value in the future for the reasons it has fluctuated in the past, whatever those are.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hahahaha. ROTFL.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
In principle, production cost puts a ceiling on its value, but there is no floor. No protection from competition, unlike the dollar.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
First part is right: value derives frm belief others want to use it for trade. Second part is not obvious: beliefs could stabilize or not.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
It is already trading like a speculative asset and no reason why that will cease.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fiat currencies depend on belief others will use it, but national currencies can be used for taxes and can depend on some gov. support.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
This is a very new animal; hard to be confident about it.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
As is true for any fiat money---and also for any commodity money.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History