US

Balanced Budget Amendment

Question A:

Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fiscal measures (e.g. TARP) can and often do reduce the severity of recessions.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Pistol. Foot. Bang.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
is this a trick question?
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
In principle, an optimizing government runs a deficit to smooth taxes when a recession occurs. That's no excuse for the current deficit.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Fiscal stimulus can be useful sometimes. Straight-jacketing the government is a mistake. Also I don't see how it would be enforced.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eliminating countercyclical spending does not seem like a good idea for reducing output fluctuations.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Turning off automatic stabilizers increases volatility.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Requiring budget balance would upend current operating procedure, with effects too uncertain to predict reduced output variability.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Arguably it would substantially increase output variability
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
There might be an effect on cost of borrowing, but unlikely to be "substantial".
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Starting with no debt, this would be true by definition (although it would be bad policy). Starting with a lot of debt, this could backfire.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
If we were dumb enough to force ourselves to cut spending/raise taxes in the middle of recessions, who’s to say world wouldn’t RAISE rates?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
seems mechanically true but could there be an effect on growth?
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The gov is way down the path of disappearance of a market for its debt, with the highest peacetime deficit/GDP ever.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Suppose the government spends and borrows less. This might raise interest rates if consumers spend more to offset critical services.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Lenders care about the reputation of the borrower to pay its obligations, not deficits.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
A lot would depend on implementation.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Fiscal impact lowers interest rates, but turmoil impact would raise. Net impact unclear.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Excessive debt can drive up borrowing costs, but it is not clear that current costs are vastly higher than they would be with budget balance
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Better idea. Amend the constitution to require 6% growth, 2% inflation and full employment. And all 4 foot putts are gimmes.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History