Question A:
Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
10%
0%
52%
33%
2%
2%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
70%
29%
0%
1%
0%
Question B:
Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
10%
5%
12%
26%
29%
17%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
20%
33%
25%
18%
4%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiscal measures (e.g. TARP) can and often do reduce the severity of recessions.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pistol. Foot. Bang.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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is this a trick question?
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In principle, an optimizing government runs a deficit to smooth taxes when a recession occurs. That's no excuse for the current deficit.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiscal stimulus can be useful sometimes. Straight-jacketing the government is a mistake. Also I don't see how it would be enforced.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliminating countercyclical spending does not seem like a good idea for reducing output fluctuations.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Turning off automatic stabilizers increases volatility.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Requiring budget balance would upend current operating procedure, with effects too uncertain to predict reduced output variability.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Arguably it would substantially increase output variability
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There might be an effect on cost of borrowing, but unlikely to be "substantial".
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Starting with no debt, this would be true by definition (although it would be bad policy). Starting with a lot of debt, this could backfire.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If we were dumb enough to force ourselves to cut spending/raise taxes in the middle of recessions, who’s to say world wouldn’t RAISE rates?
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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seems mechanically true but could there be an effect on growth?
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The gov is way down the path of disappearance of a market for its debt, with the highest peacetime deficit/GDP ever.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Suppose the government spends and borrows less. This might raise interest rates if consumers spend more to offset critical services.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lenders care about the reputation of the borrower to pay its obligations, not deficits.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A lot would depend on implementation.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiscal impact lowers interest rates, but turmoil impact would raise. Net impact unclear.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Excessive debt can drive up borrowing costs, but it is not clear that current costs are vastly higher than they would be with budget balance
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Better idea. Amend the constitution to require 6% growth, 2% inflation and full employment. And all 4 foot putts are gimmes.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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