Autonomous Cars

Autonomous cars may take some time before they are widely used.

This is a tough question for economists to answer given scant available evidence. And, regrettably, I have misplaced my crystal ball.

It may. it may not. Anybody who gives a more affirmative answer knows a lot more than me.

10 years it too short to change the infrastructure around cars. In 25 years maybe this will be true, or maybe we will have flying cars!

The impact of smartphone is much debated, so doing at least as well is not a very big deal.

I believe the gains are big. But so are the gains from smart phones. So the only uncertainty is which will be bigger.

Have smartphones raised average welfare?

Smartphones have impact on wider range of activities;10 years too short for autonomous cars to have reached high enough penetration.

Autonomous cars are relevant for urban areas, whereas smartphones have affected the life of almost everybody, thus a larger welfare effect.

Smartphones appear far more valuable for consumption and production. I am very far from an expert on either topic, hence the low confidence.

A.cars reduce opp. cost & productivity, but impact could take longer. Relat magnitude unclear. Sm phone hard to assess, so many apps & uses

Autonomous cars could contribute to lower emissions and greatly reduced congestion; but only with consistent urban planning

Smartphones have given access to millions to new information and opened up channels of communication. Autonomous cars will get nowhere near

There are lots of alternative means of transport (public transport) more able to avoid congestion and pollution.

average person is better off: not wasting time in traffic; fewer accidents. But many drivers lose jobs, their outside options are uncertain

In 1960, people thought that machine translation was around the corner...

Even with technological progress in this area, my guess is it will face substantial regulatory barriers before being widely adopted.