Question A:
Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These kinds of innovations have the potential to improve productivity but actually using them in this way often seems to turn out to be difficult.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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we have learned that what appears to be tech breakthroughs do not always lead to increases in measured tfp...
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I wish it would, but the data is against this. Fact 1: GDP growth has been slowing since the 1950s. Fact 2: this era spanned many amazing innovations. Fact 3: 10 years is far too fast for any big invention to change GDP.
So I would love this to be true, but that's its not likely
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More growth relative to having no AI, certainly. Relative to growth rates from the past decades, that remains uncertain.
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too early to say. LLM experience to date not all that encouraging.
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Key question is how substantial the increase will be - confidence interval is pretty large (and hence low confidence score)
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While there are solid facts on the diffusion of new technologies and their impact on growth, I thought that the estimates of the speed/timing over which these materialize has very large confidence bands.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very hard to tell how revolutionary this technology will be at this early stage.
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One might expect AI to fundamentally alter the way business is conducted in many spheres of the economy. Not just replacing stuff done by humans before but also new possibilities leading to new growth prospects.
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I’m assuming “increase” means relative to world without AI.
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The sign of the impact is most likely positive but I don't we can know the effect is substantial. Is it a greater leap forward than the internet, which boosted productivity substantially for a few years before apparently tailing off?
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Where did social media growth effect go?
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very diificult to say what the effect of these kinds of changes has been in the past or what it will be going forward.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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for the same reason as the answer to the earlier question. We have a hard time assessing what the effect of the net was on pty. We must be careful about predicting the effect of AI.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not easy - basically who will win in a fight of King Kong vs Godzilla? The internet is amazing and impacts every one of us every day. But GDP growth has slowed over the last 20 years. Will AI be that much better - I would love it to be true, but doubt it.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Also because it comes at a time of labor scarcity.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am reasonably certain that the answer is we don't know (hence vote uncertain). Besides, exact magnitude of the internet's impact on growth and in particular productivity growth is still being debated. It has likely increased over time, which makes comparison even more difficult
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too many unknowns but I would think it probably unlikely.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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AI seems good for clerical activities, but who knows?
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